By John Fredericks
Contributors: Jack Fredericks and Nate Perry
Well, here we are again! Welcome to the first NFL 2022 edition of GodzillaWins.com, our NFL football preview!
I don’t speak for Jack from Tunica and Nate from Reno, I’ll let them get crushed by me again this year—but as for Godzilla -I am poised for a record-setting year!
As for last season, we picked virtually every NFL game and the playoffs and we ended the season a blistering +30 games over .500 against the spread (ATS). This was the single best handicapping record in America, and we toasted the Vegas Wise Guys.
2022 is going to be even better! Our goal is +35 games over .500 ATS. Moving the bar up is what we do!
We are adding a special feature this season – and you will love it: a weekly Godzilla Wins handicapping show! Each Saturday morning from 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM our live radio show will feature both our college and NFL picks of the week with our top-shelf analysis. We’ll give the why, the why nots and we’ll take some phone calls, too.
Godzilla Wins Radio Show starts this Saturday, August 20 at 9:00 AM live with our NFL preview. It will be available on the following platforms:GODZILLA WINS is now on the radio! Listen to the Godzilla Wins Radio Show live or on-demand:
Listen to the Godzilla Wins Radio Show podcast (on your favorite podcast platform.)
Jack Fredericks: It’s the Mississippi Marxist coming at you for another less-than-successful year picking spreads. I had to bow out midway through last year because my winning percentage matched Trump’s popular vote and, unfortunately for me, there’s no electoral college in football. Enjoy this season folks! Once the labor force finally takes over the means of production and we force Dan Snyder and Arthur Blank to compete in a bare-knuckle brawl to see who gets to keep their ninety-foot yacht, football will officially be canceled! I’m armed with FBI search warrants and legitimate votes. Time to finally put the Godzilla in his rightful place as beta of the family. I’ll be jumping in on a couple of these, but I have a real job and don’t have time to pontificate on the Jaguars’ defense.
No Pick Nate: Reporting for duty from Reno, I’m back to talk sense to everyone while this column slowly careens towards chaos as Godzilla tries to body me into picking every game on the board. Looking forward to another season of giving lots of opinions and a few picks. Hopefully, our win percentage rises faster than the Earth’s temperature and we can make some money before we’re watching football games played on a barge in Miami. I’ll be hopping in on a few of these as well, with more to come next week. The short and sweet theme of this preview for me is, don’t overthink it. Full disclosure: I’m a guy who has already talked himself into betting Super Bowl futures on the Jets and Jags. I could not conscionably recommend anyone do the same. Do with that information what you will.
John: Note to Jack, Nate, and Joe: I’m the Silver back in this family until further notice!
Enough of that. Let’s delve right in, shall we?
2022 NFL PREVIEW
Buffalo Bills — Draft Kings odds to win division: -230
So you want to bet against Josh Allen, over 17 games? Not a good wager. Allen is a beast, and the Bills have engulfed him with great athletes on both sides of the ball. The Bills were a coin toss in overtime from getting to the Super Bowl in 2021.
Their defense was elite last season—and they went out and added Von Miller. They want a number one seed and home field advantage. The loss of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll might be an issue in the first game or two, but Allen will likely adjust.
However, this team has a lot of maturing to do. Remember, they blew three games last season because the offense took the day off. Their defense also farted out some stink bombs last year too, giving up 30 plus in several losses and that gives some pause. They should win the division if they focus on the games, not their TV reviews.
Jack: Starting hot. I’m picking the Buffalo Bills to come out atop the AFC. I have no love for the Titans, no time for the Chiefs, and no respect for the Bengals. The Bills will do as they always do: play great defense and mount a lightning-quick offense. Josh Allen only gets better with age. The Bills TikTok is fire. The Bills win fifteen games and the Super Bowl. Send it.
Nate: This falls into the don’t overthink it category. The Bills are big favorites to win this division, and they should be. The Bills won the division last year and I can’t see how they don’t do it again barring some sort of catastrophe like losing Josh Allen. I’m not buying into any narratives that suggest anyone else in this division will be able to challenge an elite QB in Allen with a strong defense. Can’t recommend anyone bet this at -230, but don’t fade the Bills here, they’re just way better than everyone else in their division.
Miami Dolphins – Draft Kings odds to win division: +450
Fun fact: did you know the Dolphins won 19 games the last two seasons? They fired their head coach – who is now suing the Dolphins and NFL – because they couldn’t close the deal and make the playoffs. You see, in the NFL, you have to win games AND make the playoffs to keep your job. Maybe Mike Daniel’s offense is the key here. Tua Tagovailoa is in year three. This is a make-or-break for him.
The Fins made a couple of big pool splashes this season by getting Tryreek Hill and popping for free agent Terron Armstead – speed on the outside and beef up front. Bottom line, Tagovailoa has to put up or shut up this year. His rap is that he only averages 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Adding Hill, as well as Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Waddle gives Tagovailoa the weapons he needs on paper to get that yards per passing number up the high single digits.
The Fish defense is better than advertised. They were the reason the Dolphins made that eight of nine wins late run. They will need to step up again to get this team a playoff berth. If the defense falters, this is an 8-8 team.
New England Patriots Draft Kings odds to win division: +500
Is Mac Jones this season’s Joey Burrow? Is Bill Belichick human, or an A.I. creation in a hoodie?
Is that defense for real? This will take magic, and I don’t see it.
I don’t buy this defense. Who can they really stop? They lack speed on the outside, and their secondary is a sieve. Is Matt Patricia coming back the answer? The beard and the pencil behind his ear? Will Joe Judge call plays in 2022? Wow, he did wonders for the Giants and he had the 11 points a game offense humming! LMAO! Smoke and mirrors in Gillette.
New York Jets Draft Kings odds to win division: +2800
Is Zach attack back? The Jets showed occasional signs of life last season.
Losing Mekhi Becton is tough, but adding Laken Tomlinson should help.
The Jets defense has some players and with that, some promise. First-round picks Sauce Gardner and Jermain Johnson II could make a big difference.
On top of the offense improving, Robert Saleh’s defense should be set at the line. If first-round picks Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson II have stellar rookie years, this defense could really surprise people and carry this team similar to the Dolphins’ defense of the past two seasons. This is a team on the rise, and they will win some games. Don’t underestimate Zach-attack having a few big games. Give the Jets some love, and maybe – just maybe – the longtime pathetic Jets management has doused the seemingly never-ending dumpster fire in New York.
Jack: The only thing interesting coming out of the five boroughs this fall are federal indictments. Jets games are a great time to check your email.
Picks to Win Division
Baltimore Ravens Draft Kings odds to win division: +135
It’s Lamar or bust. Can he stay healthy? Can he stop throwing stupid picks? In 2021, Jackson’s interception rate (interceptions per pass attempt) was 3.4 percent. In his 2019 – his MVP season, that figure was only 1.5 percent.
Dilemma: run the ball too much and you end up on the IR (injured reserve). Throw the ball too much and you end up giving away points (see stats above).
Their defense was ravaged by so many injuries last season that no one could keep up! So who knows?
Staying healthy will be the key for new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald’s boys in 2022. If the Ravens can return to their brand and play as a top-tier defense, they will be a tough game for any opponent.
My concern here is who the hell on this team can catch a pass over 10 years? Ok, I get the tight end thing with Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle. This receiving corps is so weak I can’t see the Ravens moving the ball downfield without Lamar doing tuck and run. Their run game is solid, but 10 in the box can snuff that. Oh, and then Jackson forces throws, and it’s pick-six city.
Two-pass catchers aren’t enough to take this offense where it needs to be. Ravens miss the playoffs – again.
Nate: I can’t get behind this Ravens team. Losing Hollywood Brown has to hurt this offense, even with the return of running back JK Dobbins. Lamar Jackson has struggled with passing in the past, and I don’t think losing receivers is going to help him. This team is ridiculously well coached and I think the defense will keep them in games, but I don’t think they should be considered the favorites in the division.
Cincinnati Bengals Draft Kings odds to win division + 170
Joey Burrow. Need I say more? The Bungles no more. He’ll be taking snaps behind a rebuilt offensive line, which was a shambles last season, allowing 14 sacks in a divisional playoff game to the Titans last January.
Give JB a little more time to find a crazy Ja’Marr Chase running around like a jackrabbit on steroids and who knows what you’ll find out.
The bugaboo for JB is his penchant to hang on the ball too long, trying to make a play downfield that doesn’t exist.
Is the Bengals defense good enough? Depends on what “good enough”: means. The secondary is a paper tiger (pun intended) Eli Apple is a clown show at the corner and their draftee savior Cam Taylor-Britt looks like a practice squad player in camp.
Jack: Joey Slingshot went to LSU. That’s enough for me to write them off. Super Bowl, who? They miss the playoffs this year after Ja’Marr Chase fails to score a touchdown during the first six games. This is a lock, folks. Find solace in Lamar Jackson and the Ravens because the Bungles are up to their old tricks again.
Nate: I’ve been slow to get on the Joe Burrow bandwagon, but I’m coming around. This team had a huge run to make the Super Bowl last year, and over the off-season, they seem to realize that they might be even better if they could keep Burrow upright. They added help on the offensive line which should help to give him a little more time to find his elite receivers and spend less time scraping turf out of his facemask. This team feels like they are for real, and they should win this division.
Pittsburgh Steelers Draft Kings odds to win division + 1000
Oh please. Big Ben is gone and who is their quarterback? Mitch Trubisky, the Chicago Bears flame out? Oh, wait, it’s Mason Rudolph – no-no-no sorry it…Kenny Pickett! Why not bring back Tom Tebow? Tough way to start a season as this Merry Go Round of losers fires up under the Steelers’ big top. Did we mention JuJu Smith-Schuster bailed? More bad news: whoever it is on any given snap will be protected by a below-average offensive line. So far, Pickett looks the worst of the three ponies, raising eyebrows in Steeler Nation if their brass blundered with their first-round pick. Kind of like flopster Devin Bush.
Nate: The Steelers don’t look to have a bad team on paper, but the glaring issue, as John says, is at QB. It doesn’t matter if they play Trubisky or Pickett, neither will be good enough to make them competitive in winning the division. Sit tight this year and hope that Pickett can develop or that they are terrible enough to take another swing at a QB next year in the draft. Teams don’t win in the NFL on a consistent basis without a good QB. Steelers don’t have one of those at the moment.
Cleveland Browns Draft Kings odds to win division + 380
Hahaha. You can’t make this stuff up. The Browns bank on dirtbag Deshaun Watson to lead them out of the Baker Mayfield debacle and he gets banned by the phony woke NFL soy boys for 11 games. Where’s the sitcom? Oh, that’s the whole franchise. Maybe bring fat Freddy Kitchens back?
Enter Jacoby Brissett, the new savior of this haunted franchise.
Wait – what about the defense? Well, their interior defensive line is the only weak link on the roster. Jadeveon Clowny is around, masquerading as a once first-round draft pick. This team is cluster is a classic you know what.
Jack: Out of the ashes, rose the phoenix. I’d pick the Browns to come out of the North, but I’m a feminist. Browns are out.
Nate: Browns are just gonna keep being the Browns. Dumping Mayfield and trading for a QB who will serve an 11-game suspension during the prime of his career is exactly what you’d expect from a team known for their ineptitude, who have now decided to pair it with moral bankruptcy. I hope this team loses every game forever. Their team is decent, but they won’t be competitive without Watson, and this suspension ensures that he won’t play any meaningful games this year after sitting out all of last season.
Picks to Win Division
Indianapolis Colts Draft Kings odds to win division -130
LMAO! Here we go again! The fake news sports legacy media will shower us with another gush love fest with the Colts! The Colts are the chic pick to go to the super bowl, the Colts this and the Colts that, blah blah blah. It’s tiring – and frankly, boring as hell. Now Draft Kings make them the HEAVEY favorite to win the AFC South. Oh, and just wait for the media suck up bromance the Matty Ice. It’s a lick job up like none other in the NFL. Brace yourself and get ready for a slimy ooze shower after every nationally televised game to wash the saliva off that leaks through your television. And of course, Frank Reich is the greatest coach this side of Double B in New England.
So Matt Ryan, who coughed up hairballs with the Dirty Birds for 14 years, is now the Indy savior, the Joe Namath of all QBs riding the Colts to the Super Bowl like the Peyton glory days?
Talk is cheap. Hype is cheaper. Play the game.
The Colts’ receivers are average. The O-line is average. The defense is average.
Jonathan Taylor is a beast, but he can’t do it alone. We’ll see what happens in Nashville. Screw the Colts.
Jack: I love the Colts. Matt Ryan, Jonathan Taylor, the lineman, the defense, the front office, the equipment team, and the copyright lawyers. I’ve been hearing from my sources that these guys have a great locker room. This team has already rallied around their veteran quarterback and they play in a notoriously weak division. I saw a clip of their preseason workouts on ESPN+ and they looked LOCKED IN. This is an easy one. Colts clean up.
Nate: Colts have one of the better rosters in football, are balanced on both sides of the ball, have the best running back in football, and upgraded at quarterback. What’s not to like unless you’re a desperate Tennessee homer? Matty Ice is an upgrade over Wentz and his veteran presence should be steadying for a team that did not perform well at the end of last season. The defense will continue to be solid and they should be favored to win this division. Titans have too many issues brewing that will likely make things toxic and dysfunctional at the slightest hint of resistance. Meanwhile, the Jaguars and Texans are still terrible. Their path to this division relies solely on being better than Tennessee. They should be capable of that.
Tennessee Titans Draft Kings odds to win division +165
Ryan Tannehill defies his critics and has a GOAT year. I can sense these things. He cried himself to sleep for months and had to have therapy after throwing away that infamous playoff game to the Bengals. That was then and this is now.
Despite the loss of A.J. Brown and numerous questions at the wide receiver position, the play-action game with a healthy and motivated Derick Henry allows the Titans to run their three yards and a cloud of dust offense to an AFC Championship. It’s Super Bowl or bust. Robert Woods has looked great in camp, and I’m told Henry is in the best shape of his life-and he’s always in great shape – so what does that bode? This team is hungry, they’re blue collar and they have a chip on their shoulder. They get no respect. They also have a winning culture and they play above their ability.
The Beast (Henry) is the key to their play-action success, and this year they’ll be even better with a healthy O-line.
Want to know the best-kept secret in Nashville? They have the best defense in the AFC, both upfront, and at linebacker. All their starters are returning from 2021, and their pass rush – a few years ago their bane- is now ferocious. My father Sam said defense wins championships. Add in Derrick Henry and it’s a new day. Draft Kings has them at 40:1 to win the Super Bowl. You can be sure I’m all over those odds. One K gets me 40 large.
Jack: The Titans are so bad. I’m shorting them all season. They’ll win five games if they’re lucky. Running backs are like Chevrolets: after a couple of years, you’re stuck on the side of the road with your dog watching the car you overpaid for because you wanted to “look like a man” burst into flames. Get a Hyundai. Bet on the Colts.
Jacksonville Jaguars Draft Kings odds to win division +750
Remember Urban Meyer? LOL!
Trevor Lawrence will benefit from a full offseason in the Jags organization but more importantly, he will be working under a coach who isn’t a complete clown show. Doug Pederson is a good offensive play designer, and he did recently win a Super Bowl. I think the Jags take a step forward this season.
They actually have a legit defense, with Josh Allen, newly acquired Arden Key, and first-rounder Travon Walker—they will be harassing QBs all season. Their Achilles heel is a leaky secondary, which was pitiful last year and they did nothing to fix it. It’s a Darryl Lamonica dream come true. Chuck it up and start running downing the field. They will be better – mainly from beating the Texans twice.
Nate: I think Jacksonville will be better after the absolute unmitigated dumpster fire of a team and organization they were last year. Doug Pederson should steady them and they signed a lot of talent to help out their young QB. Kirk is an upgrade for the receiving corps and they added veteran help along the offensive line. The defense was a huge priority in the draft and they should be better on that side of the ball as well. I’m not saying they’re going to make a huge leap, but even if they can manage to win six or seven games, that’s a solid improvement for a team with four wins in their previous two seasons. Anyways, I’ll pour one out here for my 125/1 futures bet on the Jaguars that was dead before I hit submit. But, hey, do you believe in miracles?
Houston Texans Draft Kings odds of winning division + 3,000
This is the worst team in the NFL. David Mills is starting again, and he was sub-par last year. The best thing about this team is coach Lovie Smith’s flowing grey beard. If you lose this season to the Texans, do 1,000 pushups each and burn the game film. They can actually go 0-17.
Picks to Win Division
Kansas City Chiefs Draft Kings odds to win division: +175
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator say they will be more measured in 2022. Uh-huh. Mahomes got blitzed only 14 percent of the time in 2021 and it proved their eventual undoing. They exploit blitzes. In a regular drop-back passing sequence with a nickel-5 defense, the Chiefs offensive production fizzled. Big time. Defenses adjust in the NFL.
What about the Chiefs’ defense? Just ask Joey Burrow. They lack youth, speed, and athleticism. It’s proletarian at best. My take here is that Kansas City’s time as the West’s elite may be ebbing, especially without Tyreek Hill.
The saga with the Chiefs in the Mahomes era has been their defense. 2021 saw them give up 36 points to Buffalo at home, in a playoff win. KC’s defense has ranked 31st, 18th, 19th, and 23rd in defensive play during Mahomes’ career as a starter. If they don’t move toward the league average, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to make it through a tough AFC.
Juju Smith-Schuster is a great addition, but he’s no Tareek Hill. Either is Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Skyy Moore.
I think they get bounced at home in round one.
Los Angeles Chargers Draft Kings odd to win division +220
Defensive front from worst to first? A rebuilt and refurbished D-Front might remake the entire Chargers M.O. After ranking an anemic 27th in the league, the Bolts’ front office got serious and brought in some heavyweights. Khalil Mack and Sebastian Joseph-Day will team up with bad boy Joey Bosa and try to revitalize a punch-line to a fearsome foursome.
Meanwhile, is Justin Herbert elite? Yes. Will he get better this season? Likely. The Chargers are a dangerous quick strike offense, with multiple threats all over the place.
Here is what we know: they will score points. Here is what we don’t know: will they stop anybody? This is the mystery team of the AFC. It would not shock me if they contended for the AFC title, nor would I be surprised if they were a bust and missed making the playoffs.
Coach Brandon Staley is Mr. go for it on fourth down. It’s great if you make those, disastrous if you don’t. I don’t like betting on them as they give up too many big plays. This is a very competitive division with six games each against tough teams. It’s a grind.
Jack: Take these odds to the credit union. The two things we know they love in San Diego are a soft defense and PEDs. The Chiefs implode two-thirds of the way into the season and our new savior, Justin Hebert, sits atop the fray only to lose to the Bills in the AFC Championship. Love these odds.
Nate: I think the AFC West is probably between the Chiefs and Chargers. I’m not willing to give much credit to the Broncos or Raiders quite yet, though both should be much improved. This division is wild and I’m sure every team feels like they could win it.
The Chargers are so good on offense and all they’ve done this offseason is keep that the same while adding defensive pieces. They can score with anyone and with the loss of Hill for the Chiefs, I think this moves them into the top offense in the division. Pairing that with an improved defense and +220 seems like a good price for an underdog team that has proven to be good. Playing in a largely empty stadium isn’t ideal, but they’re my pick to make it out of a division filled with landmines every step of the way.
Denver Broncos Draft Kings odds to win division +260
It’s Russel Wilson’s world and you’re living in it!
This is the same team that lost a lot of games last year – they went 7-10. They traded away Von Miller. So other than Russel Wilson, what’s new and different? Not much.
Well, they added Randy Gregory to bolster a pedestrian pass rush. Ok, so that’s an upgrade, what else…crickets. This is the same 7-10 with a new quarterback and a pass rusher. Now nit-wits in Vegas are picking them to win the division. Right. Their secondary got lit up like a Christmas pinball machine last season- what changed there? No corners to wave to mommy about.
This is an 8-9 or 9-8 team if things go right. Back to 7-10 if they don’t. Biggest hype bust in the AFC.
Las Vegas Raiders Draft Kings odds to win division +650
I am a true believer in Derek Carr. Now throw in Davante Adams and we are looking at a lethal combination. Carr has his detractors for sure. But he never had a Davante Adams. You see Aaron Rodgers now bitching every day in practice about his lackluster receiving corps. Davante is an offense changer. Don’t forget Darren Walker and Hunter Renfro – and now you have some real weapons. This is going to be fun to watch.
The Raiders’ defense is the issue. Ranked 26th last season, nothing much has changed. They can’t compete in this division having to play three elite quarterbacks six total times with that sieve of a secondary and no pressure.
If they don’t get some answers on defense, things could get ugly early. They have to put up 30 a week to compete. Not a good place to be. Like last in the division.
Jack: Chucky is out. The offense is upgraded. Laxalt is ahead in the polls. Be honest, does anyone care what happens in Vegas?
John: Laxalt wins. GOP gains Senate control. See ya, Chuck.
Picks to Win Division
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