By John Fredericks
Soon you will be sick of all this winning!
NFL WEEK 11
Can you believe we are several days from Thanksgiving and already we are in week 11 of the NFL? Wow, time flies – especially when you are winning!
After picking 139 NFL games against the spread (ATS) over 10 weeks, I stand at 67-67-5, including Thursday night’s big win. A .500-win percentage is just where I need to be going into week 11. I end each NFL year up 25-30 games and this is where I always make my move. So let the winners start coming this week and let the Godzilla rampage begin!
Here we go!
Eagles at Colts +6.5
The Eagles coughed up a Monday night game at home to the Washington What-Evers and the Philly sports world unravels. Stop. They lost on a horrifically silly roughing the passer call with 1:45 to go – don’t get me started on this asinine roughing the QB calls at the end of games. The NFL has to stop this nonsense. It’s one game, folks.
Meanwhile, the Colts are the nation’s new NFL comedy act. Jeff Saturday-their new head coach- has nothing beyond high school coaching experience and the front office is worse than the Raiders led by hapless Mark Davis. This is a franchise in disarray with a washed-up QB is who looks like he belongs in the Denny’s over 60 blue light special line.
The Eagles come back with a vengeance. However, they better get ready for Derrick Henry in two weeks. They have no run defense this side of Detroit.
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Lions at Giants -3
You can’t be serious? I only have to lay 3 points against the worst defense in the NFL since St. Mary’s school of the headless and blind? And my team is at home with a 7-2 record? Where do I sign up?
The Giants are the new Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL- they get no respect. Barkley will run through this Lions D-Front horror show like your Thanksgiving electric carving knife runs through the cranberry sauce. This is my best bet of the week! G-Men at home looking to make the dance. Bark the Shark runs for 200.
Best Bet #1 Pick: G-Men -3
Browns at Bills at Detroit -8
I have not won a bet on the Browns this season. This game is in Detroit and no one ever has a clue which Browns team shows up. Jacoby B has one more game to prove himself before Watson trots in. My instincts tell me the Brownies stuff Buffalo’s run game here and force Josh Allen to throw 50 passes. Cleveland is better than then their record and I’ll take the 8 at a semi home game – no Buffalo fans can get to the motor city – they are snowed in! Browns surprise here. I can see it coming a mile away.
Pick: Brownies + 8
Jets at Pats -3.5
The Jets have lost like 197 straight games to Billy B. We all know New England gets better as the season moves along and so all the wise guy Vegas money is plopped on the Pats — the line moved to 3.5 from 3 – which is a Vegas no-no.
That’s why I love the Jets here. They are 4-0 on the road this season because they don’t care. They stick it to the man.
The Jets give the New Jersey salute to all the Pats fans and find a way to win at Gillette. This is a dog-fight and the points are a bonus. You ask why? I ask, why not?
Pick: Jets + 3.5
Bears at Atlanta Clown Show (ACS) -3
I was right, they are clowns. In a piss-poor performance at Charlotte last week on a Thursday night in the rain Atlanta looked like a Div. II start-up college program. The last straw for me was watching Marcus Mariota flinging a pass to no one in particular while being sacked and in a prone position. Yikes. Their defense couldn’t can’t stop a one-wheeled trolley car going uphill in a windstorm.
Meanwhile I love the Bears new offense: give the ball to all their backs in Merry-Go-Round including their quarterback and run around the playground. Watching Justin Fields improvise plays on the fly reminds me of playing sandlot football where you drew up plays in the dirt and counted to five Mississippi. It’s fun! It’s like the old Navy wishbone– 90 runs and one pass- and that’s by mistake.
Best Bet #2. Pick: Bears + 3
Cats at Ravens -13
This is the game that needs little explanation. I have no fear of laying big points against inferior teams on the road who have little chance of winning the game. Most of the time this odd season the big point lays have not covered. Not here, not now. Lamar Jackson is pissed he doesn’t have a new contract and he takes out his wrath on a hapless Charlotte team looking forward the next NFL draft.
Pick: Ravens -13
Washington What-Evers at Texans +3
More good news for the Washington Commanders and their beleaguered owner Dan Snyder: the GOP’s takeover of the House means no hearings on the franchise! I love how Rivera blasted his young players’ ill-advised locker room celebration after beating the Eagles. He said STFU-you haven’t won crap yet! Ouch. Meanwhile the What-Evers have all so quietly won four out of their last five.
I also remembered that Lovie Smith, then coach of the Bears, fired Ron Rivera as defensive coordinator – a team he played for — and sent him packing. Ron won’t forget, and he won’t blow the chance to stick it to Lovie. Besides, the Texans are not competitive. Love Washington here. It’s payback time for Riverboat Ron.
Pick: What-Evers -3
Rams at Saints -2.5
No Cooper Kupp, no Rams offense. It’s in disarray even with him. Stafford is cooked like a stuck pig on Christmas morning. Stick the proverbial fork in him, he’s done. Meantime the Saints only like to win at home and at 3-7 actually still have a shot at the playoffs. Who Dat? Why, its Andy Dalton! No, it’s a red-headed wounded duck! Oh my. Take the Saints. The Rams are done.
Pick: Saints -2.5
Raiders at Broncos -3
Heavens to Betsy, did you see poor Derek Carr cry on national TV last week in his post-game interview after his 2-7 Raiders blew another lead at Indy and all but ended any semblance of a playoff birth?
I actually felt for the guy. But this Vegas team dogged it last week for all the world to witness. They quit.
Quitting is a habit.
Broncos defense is as legit as they come. As Broncos coach Nathanial Hackett said about this game: “Somebody has to win. Even if nobody deserves to.”
Truer words have never been spoken.
Pick: Broncos -3
Cowboys at Vikes +1.5
Wow. Minnesota is 8-1 and goes home and is the underdog. Talk about no respect. This Dallas team just blew a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter to a reeling Cheese head bunch that has now dropped to 3-7. Sure, Dallas’s front four is fearsome and Micah Parsons is not seemingly human. But ponder this: how does Minnesota keep winning games? Eight wins is a lot of wins. So many wins! In the infamous words of Big Tuna: “You are what your record says you are.” In the Vikings’ case, it’s called 8-1. Cousins is not flashy, he’s a game manager. Vikes at home. In the dome. Bring out the chains, Kirk.
Pick: Vikes +1.5
Bungles at Steelers +3.5
It’s now feasible that both Super Bowl teams of last season don’t even make the playoffs. The Bungles are on the outside looking in. The Steelers hung around a lot of games and now they have WATT back who is guaranteed to terrorize Joey Burrow who is less protected than an open can of tuna around Sammy the Cat (Sammy is our cat, BTW. He has his own Twitter handle, too).
Mike Tomlin’s record ATS as a home underdog is off the charts. The towels will be out and Burrow will be harassed all day. The Steel Curtain closes around this over-rated team. See ya, Bungles.
Pick: Steelers +3.5
Chiefs at Bolts +5.5
I love the Chargers in this must-win game. At 5-4 they need the W here at lot more than KC on the road. How many games can Mahomes win with last-minute heroics? This will be a very close football game with multiple lead changes. The Bolts can score points and have battled through numerous injuries to still be hanging around in the division. A win here puts them within striking distance. KC has not looked that great in their three-game win streak.
Pick: Bolts + 5.5
SF vs. Cards in Mexico City +8
I can’t lay eight points on a team with no offense. Period. Look, this team doesn’t score any points. And I cannot bet the Cards under any circumstance. I’m going to bed early. See you on Thanksgiving where I have bet on the Lions 46 years in a row. Ask my sons Jack or Joe, they know. It’s painful. But then I bet Dallas and get even.