Five Best Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bets
FIVE BEST SUPER BOWL PROP BETS – Super Bowl LVIII is finally here, and it is the best matchup we could have hoped for. Both teams have stellar defenses and big-name players on offense. The Chiefs were not a top-five offense throughout the season, like the 49ers, but they have Patrick Mahomes.
They also have Andy Reid, one of the best offensive minds in the game. The game plans from Reid and Kyle Shanahan should put stress on the defenses, but it is up to the players to execute. The game should live up to the hype. Check out the Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks page to come out on top.
Jake Moody over/under 1.5 Field Goals
It may not be the most popular prop bet for the big game, but it is my favorite. The Chiefs defense is legit. They hold teams to 17.3 points per game and 310.4 total yards per game, both top-three in the league. Chris Jones is the defensive anchor and is a rare combination of a player who can pressure the quarterback and stuff the run.
Third downs will be vital, as always, and the Chiefs let their opponents convert 37.1%. The 49ers have the talent to overcome this defense but will meet roadblocks, whether it is a Chris Jones sack or a L’Jarius Sneed pass breakup. Jake Moody becomes vital in a game that is a near pick ‘em.
He has attempted at least two field goals in each playoff game but only converted two once against Detroit. He is three for five in the playoffs. Allegiant Stadium is domed, so the conditions should not play a factor. He should have at least two opportunities, and I think he converts them.
The Pick: Moody Over 1.5 Field Goals
Patrick Mahomes over/under 4.5 Rush Attempts
The 49ers defense is relentless when pursuing the quarterback. They totaled 48 sacks this season and added Chase Young at the trade deadline to add to their stacked unit.
Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Young are as good a group of pass rushers as any in the league and should make their presence felt. Unfortunately for them, they are facing the best quarterback in the league.
Mahomes is intelligent and has the athleticism to evade the pass rush. He should be able to diagnose most blitzes pre-snap but will have to improvise at some point.
He will not hold anything back, as shown in previous Super Bowls. He ran six times in last season’s Super Bowl, five times against the Buccaneers, and nine times in his first Super Bowl matchup against the 49ers. I do not like how high his rushing yard total is, but his rush attempts prop is fair.
The Pick: Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts
Brock Purdy over/under 0.5 Interceptions
Purdy has received plenty of criticism this season, but it may have been unjustified. His interception rate (2.3%) was high, but he also threw four of his 11 regular season interceptions in one game against the Ravens.
Purdy played 10 games without throwing an interception. He has thrown one in the postseason. Luckily, he has a defense that can bail him out by creating the most interceptions this season.
The Chiefs have only picked the ball off eight times this season. They have a turnover differential of -11 but limit points.
Purdy has had plenty of time to prepare, and Shanahan will put him in the best position to succeed. He should have a clean game if he dials in and has no errant throws over the middle.
The Pick: Purdy Under 0.5 Interceptions
Deebo Samuel over/under 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
The Chiefs have a scary secondary. L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie were lights out for the unit this season and owe a lot of credit to the front seven for not allowing much time to throw. The lone game the defense struggled in the postseason was against Josh Allen and the Bills. They allowed 24 points but limited them to 186 yards passing.
The Bills beat them on the ground and nearly won the game. They will have their hands full against the 49ers’ talented offense.
Deebo Samuel has shown an ability to run the ball, and Christian McCaffrey is an elite runner. Shanahan should scheme several runs for Samuel and lean on McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell, to a lesser extent, against this defense.
Samuel will be moving pre-snap a fair amount, and Aiyuk will be out wide. We will see if Sneed follows Aiyuk or matches up with Samuel from time to time. George Kittle is also a weapon to worry about from the tight-end position.
Quarterbacks typically do not even attempt throws against Sneed, and Purdy will not be the exception. Sneed follows the best receiver for each team, and that would be Aiyuk.
Expect Shanahan to dial up short throws and runs for Samuel to get the ball in his hands. We all have seen how dangerous he is as a runner.
The Pick: Samuel Over 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
George Kittle over/under 21.5 Longest Reception
Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle have been the deep threats to the 49ers’ offense. Aiyuk was second in receiving yards on targets of 10+ yards this season, trailing Tyreek Hill. He will have Sneed following him, though.
Aiyuk had 28 plays of 20+ yards this season to lead the team, and Kittle was second with 18.
Kittle has topped this number on his longest reception 12 times this season, including both playoff games. He does not have an injury designation coming into the game despite being limited in practice due to a toe injury. Kittle said it was not a big deal, and Shanahan does not seem worried either.
Kittle is as tough as they come and will suit up even if he is not 100%. He is an X-factor in this game, especially if Sneed locks up Aiyuk.