Final Day Premier League Parlay – May 28, 2023

FINAL DAY PREMIER LEAGUE PARLAY – MAY 28, 2023 – Unlike the Bundesliga, the Premier League already has the title decided, as Manchester City hit the gas and Arsenal collapsed under the pressure. But there’s still plenty to be decided and 10 matches on the docket for Sunday, making for a great finish to the season.

With 10 matches in play, this parlay has the potential to be really lucrative. If all of these predictions hit, we’re looking at a payout of $2,985 on a $5 bet.

Arsenal vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

Arsenal disintegrated down the stretch, but the Gunners should be fine here. Wolverhampton owns the weakest attack in the Premier League with just 31 goals, and the Wolves sit in a comfortable 13th with nothing to play for.

That should allow Arsenal to close out the year on a good note and enjoy its runner-up finish. The Gunners haven’t brought Champions League competition to the Emirates Stadium since 2016, when they also finished second. If you’d offered Arsenal fans second before the season, they’d have taken that with no hesitation. It’s only because they were so close to the title that it hurts. This isn’t one to overthink; back Arsenal win to nil (+135).

Aston Villa vs. Brighton and Hove Albion

Sixth vs. seventh would hold a lot more meaning if there was any chance Aston Villa could make up the difference. But realistically, Villa’s not going to overturn the goal differential and steal Brighton’s place in the Europa League.

However, that’s good news for us as far as betting this goes. It means taking Villa to win makes the most sense because a loss won’t really harm Brighton. A draw secures sixth place for Brighton, but the Seagulls are just fine with a defeat as long as they don’t lose by an obscene number. Villa, meanwhile, clinches seventh and a Conference League place with a victory. A draw does the Lions no good unless Tottenham also fails to win, so they’ve got to go for a victory. 

Villa’s won five straight to nil at home, so backing them to win to nil at +325 is fantastic value for a single bet. For the parlay, we don’t need to be that aggressive; we’ll just take Villa ML (+123).

Brentford vs. Manchester City

Did you know Brentford actually beat Manchester City on the road in December? What’s more, the Bees have something to play for here. It’s a longshot, but if Aston Villa and Tottenham both fail to win, Brentford can snatch the last European slot from England and finish seventh with a win. Sure, it’s only the Conference League, but the idea of European competition at the Community Stadium is dreamland for a side that was playing in League One a decade ago.

City’s got nothing to play for, so its goal is to avoid injury. The Sky Blues badly want to win their first Champions League crown in two weeks, and they won’t be able to rest in the FA Cup final against Manchester United. That means they likely rest players here in a match that’s meaningless to them.

A draw does Brentford no good, which makes the Bees ML at +390 very enticing. But I’m not risking the parlay on that kind of longshot. Instead, given that City’s past five matches have all seen three goals or less and all three meetings between these teams have done the same, I’ll bank on UNDER 3.5 goals (-190). 

Chelsea vs. Newcastle United

With 32 goals conceded in 37 matches, Newcastle owns the second-best defense in the Premier League. With 36 goals in 36 matches, Chelsea owns the fourth-worst offense in the Premier League. Thanks to Newcastle’s draw on Monday with Leicester, the Magpies are locked into a Champions League place. They’ll either finish third or fourth, but either does the job for their perspective.

It’s been a disastrous campaign for Chelsea. The Blues will finish with their lowest point total since 1988, the last time they were relegated. Chelsea was never close to meeting that fate, but it will go without European competition next season for the first time since 2016. 

The past seven meetings between these sides have seen at least one side fail to score, and with neither side having anything to play for, I expect another blank. Take a No on Both Teams to Score (+120).

Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest

Since Jan. 4, Crystal Palace has lost just once at Selhurst Park, and that was to league champion Manchester City. Jan. 4 was also the last time Nottingham Forest won away from the City Ground, and that was to last-place Southampton.

Had Forest not beaten Arsenal at home last time out, this could have been tricky. Without those three points, Forest would have needed a result to ensure survival. As it is, the Reds are safe for next season and don’t have to worry about this match. That means this one’s likely to be really straightforward, given the teams’ respective forms. Back Palace ML (-137).

Everton vs. AFC Bournemouth

Everton has to win to guarantee survival, and on paper, they have the right opponent. Bournemouth has nothing to play for and has looked pretty poor ever since securing survival three matches ago.

But there’s no guarantee that Everton pulls this out. The Toffees have dropped three in a row to Bournemouth, and they come in as winners in just one of their past five. There’s only one likely move to make here: these defenses are atrocious. Between them, Everton and Bournemouth have conceded 127 times on the year. That says we should get three out of this one. Play OVER 2.5 (-139).

Leeds United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Judging from their play, I don’t think Spurs care whether or not they make the Conference League. That tournament would be huge for Villa or Brentford, but Tottenham’s play away from home suggests it’s just not important to them. Spurs have been just dreadful on the road, going 0-5-2 away since Jan. 23. The draws weren’t exactly great showings; they came against relegation strugglers Southampton and Everton.

That’s good for Leeds, which must win to have any hope of survival. Even with a win, it’s not looking good. To stay in the Premier League, Leeds must win, Leicester must fail to beat West Ham and Everton must lose to Bournemouth, or draw if Leeds wins by 3 or more.

The problem for Leeds: Tottenham has Harry Kane and Leeds has conceded a league-worst 74 times. That works for us; there’s almost no chance this game’s ending without both teams finding the net. Take Both Teams to Score (-177). 

Leicester City vs. West Ham United

Leicester City have bet everything on its ability to beat West Ham. That’s probably the right decision. The Foxes made no attempt to attack Newcastle on Monday, knowing that a draw suited both sides as long as they could beat the Hammers.

Why were the Foxes so confident? Not a soul on the West Ham sideline cares about this match. The Hammers are playing in the Europa Conference League finals in two weeks, and a win would send them to the Europa League next season. They won’t match Leicester’s desperation, and they haven’t scored in either of their past two away matches. Take Leicester ML (+112).

Manchester United vs. Fulham

There’s one thing you rarely see in Manchester United’s matches: both nets bulging. The Red Devils don’t give up leads, and they don’t come from behind. Most times out, one goal is good enough to win the match. The numbers agree: 12 of the past 13 United matches have seen at least one side finish with zero goals.

That fits well with Fulham’s play as of late. The Cottagers were shut out at both Aston Villa and Liverpool, and they left St. Mary’s with a shutout of Southampton. This match probably won’t have anything at stake, and that makes a clean sheet a good play. Take a No on Both Teams to Score (+108).

Southampton vs. Liverpool

The biggest question here: does Southampton give another meek performance at home, or does it exit the Premier League with its heads held high? The Saints are doing this backwards: they’ve scored eight goals in their past four home matches and just once at St. Mary’s. It’s now been 288 minutes since their last goal on their home turf.

The other question: how does Liverpool approach this? The Reds are stuck in fifth place with nothing to play for. That usually means back the lower team, but this is a bad Southampton side that also has nothing to play for. I think Southampton might find a goal, but just in case Liverpool have to do all the scoring, play Liverpool and Over 2.5 (-141).

Dan’s Picks

Premier League Parlay (+59693) Arsenal Win to Nil Aston Villa ML Brentford-Man City Under 3.5 Chelsea-Newcastle No on BTTS Crystal Palace ML Everton-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Leicester City ML Liverpool and Over 2.5 Leeds-Tottenham Yes on BTTS Man United-Fulham No on BTTS