FAU Owls vs. SDSU Aztecs Final Four Expert Pick
FAU Owls vs. SDSU Aztecs Final Four Expert Pick - Â The Final Four is here, and this year has been plenty unpredictable. Florida Atlantic won its region after topping Memphis, Fairleigh Dickinson, Tennessee, and Kansas State. On the other side is the San Diego State Aztecs, who beat Charleston, Furman, Alabama, and Creighton.Â
The first game in Houston will be on Saturday evening between 9-seed Florida Atlantic and the 5-seed San Diego State.Â
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Points |
Moneyline |
FAU(31-3 SU) |
+2 |
+3 |
o131.5 |
+128 |
SDSU(27-6 SU) |
u132.5 |
-3 |
u131.5 |
-154 |
Tipoff
When: Saturday, April 1st, 6:09 pm EST
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
TV: CBS
Public Bets: FAU, 56%
Public Money:Â FAU, 59%
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 31st, 2023
What to Expect
Frankly, it will be an ugly first half of basketball. A 70,000-seat football stadium will be jam-packed with fans, media, and celebrities, and the jitters will be at an all-time high for both programs. The Aztecs have gotten off to slow starts a couple of times this tournament, although Brian Dutcher has done a great job of settling them down and finding a way to lock in.Â
The Owls have played in plenty of close games during this tournament, with each win coming by less than 10 points. The Aztecs, meanwhile, won three by single digits but blew out Furman by 23.Â
This is yet another high-powered offense against the grueling San Diego State defense. The Owls rank 14th in points scored and 32nd in PPG (78.4) while sitting 15th in rebounds (35.9) despite having one of the smaller overall lineups in the country.Â
The Aztecs have allowed an absurd 57.5 PPG during their four-game tournament stretch, and even top player and future top-5 NBA Draft pick Brandon Miler shot 3-of-19 against this group.Â
Yes, the 57-56 final score in the SDSU-Creighton game isn’t pretty. But that’s the exact type of game the Aztecs hope to play, and it’s worked so far. If Dutcher and his staff can contain the Owls, slow down the pace, and dominate the paint, they move on to the national title game.Â
The Owls start four players under 6-foot-5, and that could be a tough draw against a lengthy, physical Aztecs team. However, 7-foot-1 center Vladislav Goldin might be difficult for the Aztecs, although Nathan Mensah was able to limit Ryan Kalkbrenner in the Creighton game.Â
The Depth
The biggest deciding factor in this game – and all tournament – has been the depth of the Aztecs. Dutcher and his team have nine players that average 16 or more minutes per game, and he isn’t afraid to swap lineups constantly. Down the stretch in the win over Creighton, Matt Bradley (the team’s leading scorer) stayed on the bench while others got the job done.Â
However, Florida Atlantic also has nine players that average north of 15 minutes per game, so it will be interesting to see how Dusty May and Brian Dutcher do in this chess match.
The Pick
The high-powered offense of the Owls has hung around with the likes of Tennessee and Kansas State. But they haven't faced a defense anywhere near as good as the Aztecs.Â
The suffocating, tireless, neverending pressure, switches, and rotations make things nearly impossible for offenses to get going. If the Aztecs can continue to play at the level defensively, they limit the Owls to less than 60 points and win the game. =
Moreover, Matt Bradley finally gets a mismatch, and he rebounds after two off games to score 15 or more for the Aztecs. Once again, Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler shine bright, and the Aztecs' grueling defense sends them to the national title game.Â
Matt's Pick |
San Diego State -2.5Under 131.5Â |
This Aztec defense is a suffocating nightmare! They have held 3-ball teams to record lows and you have no shot down low. Like your father said: defense wins championships!
This Aztec defense is a suffocating nightmare! They have held 3-ball teams to record lows and you have no shot down low. Like your father said: defense wins championships! Good pick!