Duke vs. Connecticut Expert Pick and Prediction – March 30, 2024 

DUKE VS. CONNECTICUT EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 30, 2024 — On the men’s side, Duke vs. Connecticut is one of the best rivalries between blue bloods in the nation. On the women’s side, it’s been a lot closer to one-way traffic. The Blue Devils are just 1-14 all-time against Connecticut, which has long been the gold standard for women’s basketball.

The Huskies came up well short of their own lofty standards last year, going out in the Sweet 16. That ended a streak of 13 consecutive Final Fours for the Huskies, who hadn’t gone out as early as the Sweet 16 since 2005. And thanks to the Blue Devils, they won’t get a chance to get revenge on the team that knocked them out last season.

Related: Women’s Basketball Betting Boom

That’s because Duke took care of Ohio State in the second round. The Blue Devils looked like they were dead in the water when they fell behind the Buckeyes by 16 points in Columbus, but Duke scored 12 of the game’s final 16 points to pull away.

And that’s both a sign of progress for the Blue Devils and a reason to worry. Duke won the battle on the boards pretty easily, but the Blue Devils didn’t exactly take care of the ball against the Buckeyes. Another slow start will lead to major issues.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Duke (22-11 SU)	O127.5	+8.5	O126.5	+280
Connecticut  (31-5 SU)	-9.5	-8.5	U126.5	-525

Tipoff 

When: Saturday, March 30 at 3:30 p.m. EST 

Where: Moda Center, Portland, Ore.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 30th, 2024

Duke vs. Connecticut In-Season Trends 

Duke’s defense has made the biggest difference. The Blue Devils really don’t put up a lot of points most nights, instead focusing on locking down their opposition. Duke has held eight straight opponents to 63 points or less and has gone 6-2 in that stretch. The Blue Devils have played a tough slate, beating N.C. State and pushing Stanford in a true road game. Even South Carolina could only manage a respectable 16-point margin when the Gamecocks visited Duke.

Related: Illinois vs. Connecticut Pick and Prediction

The Huskies did what they usually do to the Big East, but there are signs that the lack of competition might be catching up. Connecticut has only seen three ranked teams since Big East play began, and the Huskies lost to both Notre Dame and South Carolina by double digits.

This Connecticut team really hasn’t looked that impressive against good teams outside of one week where it beat North Carolina and Louisville. Outside of that, the Huskies have been a step behind.

The Difference-Makers 

Connecticut might be down from past years, but it does have Paige Bueckers. She has the ability to take over any game with both her shooting and her skills with the ball, wherever it is. Over the Huskies’ past four games, she’s recorded at least 27 points, 10 rebounds and three steals three times. The rest of the Huskies aren’t quite on her level, but they don’t need to be when she’s at her best.

Related: LSU vs. UCLA Pick and Prediction

Reigan Richardson was just average as a scorer during the regular season, but she really stepped up in Columbus. Against Richmond and Ohio State, she went for a combined 53 points and shot better than 55% each time. She’s likely to draw the bulk of the Huskies’ attention.

The Pick 

Connecticut has the best player on the floor, but the Huskies really aren’t as strong as they’ve been in years past. The spread got large because of reputation and Duke’s early struggles in Columbus, but this game is winnable for the Blue Devils.

My feeling is that Bueckers won’t let the Huskies lose, but it’s closer than expected. Four to six points feels about right.

Dan’s Picks

Duke +8.5    Under 126.5