Dolphins vs. Chiefs Expert Pick – January 13, 2024
DOLPHINS VS. CHIEFS EXPERT PICK – January 13, 2024 — This matchup could be the best of the weekend. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce versus Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill make for compelling entertainment.
These teams met in week nine, and the Chiefs won 21 to 14. One of their seasons will end in disappointment, but both teams should show their offensive prowess if the weather does not hold them back.
(11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS)
(11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS)
When: Saturday, January 13 at 8:10 p.m. EST
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of January 13th, 2024.
The Dolphins lost to the Bills last week and lost control of the second seed. Cornerback Xavien Howard will miss the game due to a foot injury. Safeties DeSHon Elliott (calf) and Jevon Holland (knees) have not practiced this week but are listed as questionable to play on Saturday.
Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have been limited participants this week due to ankle injuries, but Waddle is the only one carrying a questionable tag into this matchup. Raheem Mostert (knee/ ankle) also has a questionable tag after being limited at practice this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs rested their starters last week and beat the Chargers 13 to 12. Offensive tackle Wanya Morris will miss due to a concussion, but Donovan Smith should make his return. Receivers Justyn Ross (hamstring) and Kadarius Toney (hip/ ankle) have a questionable tag but logged multiple limited practices today.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Head-To-Head
The weather is the main story heading into this Saturday night matchup. The forecast is -2 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff in Kansas City, with wind gusts up to 40 mph.
The wind chill could be as low as -35 degrees. There is currently no precipitation in the forecast, but obviously, extremely low temperatures present their hazards. Frostbite is the most dangerous, but the coldness will make the ball harder.
That could hinder the receiver’s ability to catch the ball, an issue that has already plagued the Chiefs this season. The Dolphins have become notorious for playing poorly in the cold with Tagovailoa at quarterback, but they have a good matchup.
Chiefs Against the Pass
The Chiefs have been one of the better pass defenses this season, only allowing 176.5 passing yards per game. They have struggled against the run, though. They allow 113.2 rushing yards per game, at 4.5 yards per carry. The Dolphins are one of the best offenses in the league, with 135.8 rushing yards per game, sixth in the league.
They should be able to move the ball on the ground, which has become vital given the conditions. Raheem Mostert ran 12 times for 85 yards and a TD in their first meeting. De’ Von Achane was injured in that meeting and will provide an added boost. He averages 7.8 yards per carry, which makes the Dolphins’ backfield extremely dangerous.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will get their targets and touches but may not come off a laser beam pass from Tua. Mike McDaniel could scheme more screens and design runs to get them involved.
The Dolphins are the seventh-ranked rushing defense, allowing 97.1 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are the nineteenth-ranked rushing offense, with 104.9 rushing yards per game. Isiah Pacheco led the backfield this season with 935 rushing yards at 4.6 per carry.
The Chiefs may have to rely on Mahomes’ arm more than they would like in these conditions. Xavien Howard is out, and both safeties are dealing with injuries.
Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice should have great matchups but must be effective in negative temperatures. Kelce only caught three passes for 14 yards in their first meeting and will have to be more effective if the Chiefs want to win again.
The total is 44 on DraftKings, and I would take the under. The Dolphins should emphasize the ground game because it is their best matchup, and the Chiefs have struggled to score points all season.
The Chiefs are -4.5 on DraftKings, but I would take the underdog. The Dolphins have a stigma when playing in cold weather but have the matchup advantage. Leaving Arrowhead with a victory is difficult, but they can keep it within a field goal.
Rashee Rice only earned two targets in the first meeting with Miami but was not playing as many snaps. He played 68% in that game but averaged 82.5% in his last four games.
Since their bye week (week 10), he has averaged 8.7 targets per game and 80 yards per game. His yardage total is 63.5, and I would take the over despite the weather.
UNDER 44 Total Points
Rashee Rice OVER 63.5 Total Yards