DePaul vs. Villanova Expert Pick and Prediction – March 13, 2024 

DEPAUL VS. VILLANOVA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 13, 2024 — Welcome to Landmine City, Villanova. The Wildcats got good news and bad news with their sixth-place finish in the Big East. The good news is that their quarterfinal opponent would be third-seeded Creighton, which is no-risk, all-reward in Villanova’s quest to nab an NCAA tournament bid. Win that game, and the Wildcats will probably be playing to seal their spot in the Big East tournament semifinals. 

The bad news is that before they can worry about the Bluejays, the Wildcats first have to take care of DePaul. 

Taking care of DePaul really shouldn’t be an issue. The Blue Demons aren’t going anywhere unless they can win four games in four days, and that’s not likely because the Blue Demons haven’t won four games all year. DePaul went 0-20 in Big East play this year, and except for two matchups with Georgetown that went down to the final possession, the Blue Demons didn’t really come close to getting a win. Against its nine non-Georgetown opponents in the Big East, DePaul didn’t come within single digits even once. 

Nothing about this game suggests it should be close. The only questions are whether Villanova is locked in for tip, and if it is, how much do the Wildcats want to save their legs for Creighton on Thursday? 

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
DePaul  (3-28 SU, 10-20-1 ATS)	O136.5	+23.5	O136.5	+135
Villanova  (17-14 SU, 17-14 ATS)	-22.5	-23.5	U136.5	-150

Tipoff 

When: Wednesday, March 13 at 9 p.m. EST 

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York 

TV: FS1 

Public Bets: 88% on Villanova 

Public Money: Unavailable 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 12th, 2024 

DePaul vs. Villanova In-Season Trends 

When your defense can’t stop anybody, you’re going to play a lot of overs. DePaul’s defense certainly can’t stop anybody, which is why the over has played 9-4 since February began. In fact, if you’d blindly taken “DePaul Opponent TTO 80.5” every night except Georgetown since Feb. 3, you’d have won all nine times.  

If you’d taken any overs with Villanova, you’d be looking to reload your account. The Wildcats have been strongly defensive-oriented all season long, ranking sixth nationally in efficiency and third in opponent free throw percentage. Villanova loves to slow things down and bleed out the game, and it’s cashed the under in seven straight. 

While DePaul was giving up bucket after bucket, Villanova spent February holding teams to well under 70 points. Since the calendar turned to February, only Connecticut has managed to top 70 points against the Wildcat defense. 

The Difference-Makers 

DeSean Nelson is about all DePaul has. When he’s scoring, the Blue Demons are at least not totally helpless. He scored 20 in the first meeting, and DePaul put up 69 points. Of course, they gave up 94 that night to take another blowout loss, but the offense wasn’t completely horrible. In the return game, Nelson scored just 11 points and DePaul didn’t break 50. 

Villanova relies a lot on Eric Dixon, who both takes smart shots and prevents opponents from getting more than one look at the hoop. He went for 25 points against Creighton, but managed just three rebounds in the loss. The Wildcats need him to be a force at both ends of the floor.

The Pick 

This is a high spread. But Villanova has the potential to cover it as long as it doesn’t look ahead to Creighton. The Wildcats can’t make the NCAA tournament on Wednesday, but they can certainly play their way out of the field with a defeat here. 

On the other side of the coin, the question for DePaul is whether the Blue Demons play with nothing to lose or just decide that they’re 40 minutes away from ending a truly wretched season. It’s hard to tell because DePaul’s spent the entire year getting killed, but it appears that DePaul is going in the latter direction. 

If that’s the case, this could get really ugly. You might want to only bet the first half and get out to limit the possibility of a DePaul backdoor, but Villanova should be in no danger here. 

Dan’s Picks

Villanova -12 1H  Under 136.5