Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Expert Pick – December 24, 2023

DALLAS COWBOYS VS MIAMI DOLPHINS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 24, 2023 – Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

After our earlier look at the Cardinals vs.  Bears, my other game of the week features the Dallas Cowboys (10-4) traveling on the road to take on the Miami Dolphins (10-4). Can the Cowboys put together a solid outing on the road, or will the Dolphins roll to another victory?

Here is a look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 4:25 PM ET

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL

TV: FOX

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Will Dallas Finally Solve Its Road Woes?

The Cowboys come into this matchup having won five of their last six contests. However, they were beaten by the Buffalo Bills last week to the tune of 31-10. Dak Prescott finished 21 of 34 for 134 yards, with zero touchdowns and one interception. As if Prescott’s pedestrian stat line was not bad enough, the defense surrendered 266 rushing yards.

Another trend worth noting is the disparity of home vs. road performances for Dallas. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas is averaging 39.9 PPG in its seven home games. Conversely, the Cowboys are averaging 21.7 PPG in their seven road games.

The trend is also present on the defensive side of the ball as well. In their seven home games, the Cowboys hold opponents to just 15.4 points per contest. Meanwhile, in the team’s seven road games, the opposing teams are averaging 22.3 PPG.

The Cowboys will need to put up a lot of points to keep pace with the league’s top offenses. Something they have had difficulty doing on the road.

Dolphins Offensive Stats                             Dolphins Defensive Stats
Scoring: 31.5 PPG – 1st                                       Scoring: 21 PPG – 14^th
Total Yards: 425 YPG – 1st                                Yards Allowed: 294.3 YPG – 5^th
Passing: 285.4 YPG – 1st                                    Passing Yards Allowed: 203.1 YPG – 10^th
Rushing: 139.6 YPG – 4th                                  Rushing Yards Allowed: 90.4 YPG – 4th

The Dolphins Can Take Another Step Towards Winning Division Title

The Dolphins have also been playing well, producing four wins in their previous five decisions. Following a surprising 28-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago, Miami bounced back with a 30-0 victory against the New York Jets in Week 15.

Tua Tagovailoa completed 21 of 24 passing attempts, with one touchdown and zero interceptions. In their last five outings, Miami is averaging 31.2 points per contest, while holding the opposition to just 13.6 PPG during that stretch.

Additionally, in their blowout win over the Jets last week, the Dolphins held New York to just 103 yards of total offense en route to posting their first shoutout win in three seasons. If Miami can duplicate its defensive effort from last week, it could be another long day at the office for Prescott and Co.

Next up, here is a look at the betting trends for both teams.

The Picks

The Spread

The Dolphins opened as a one-point underdog. The line has recently moved to the Dolphins being a 2.5-point favorite.

• The Cowboys are 6-3 in their last nine games overall.
• Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 matchups against Miami.
• The Cowboys are 4-2 in their last six games vs AFC East teams.
• The Dolphins are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
• Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 Week 16 contests.
• The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Sunday games.

As the above trends indicate, both teams are performing well against the spread. But given the Cowboys’ struggles away from home this season, going with the Dolphins to cover looks like a safe bet.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total opened at 51 points. The line has moved to 48 points. Here are a few trends that show why going with the “under” is the best play here.

• The total has gone UNDER eight times in the Cowboys’ last 11 road games.
• In Dallas’s last five matchups against AFC opponents, the UNDER total won out four times.
• The UNDER total has prevailed eight times in the Dolphins’ last 10 games against Dallas.
• In Miami’s last 18 matchups against NFC-East opponents, the UNDER total hit 14 times.
• Lastly, the UNDER total cashed in 10 times in the Dolphins’ last 14 Sunday home games.

Prediction: UNDER 48 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Dak Prescott. He currently has -105 odds of throwing for 275.5 yards and -125 odds of finishing with less than 275.5 yards.

• On the season, Prescott is averaging 259.9 passing yards per outing.
• In seven road games this season, Prescott is averaging 216.3 YPG.
• The Cowboys have played against AFC-East opponents three times. Prescott has averaged just 216.7 PPG in those contests.
• Prescott is averaging 248 YPG in the Cowboys’ 11 Sunday games this season.
• During December, Prescott is averaging just 202.5 YPG.

Prediction: Dak Prescott UNDER 275.5 passing yards

The key player for the Dolphins is Tua Tagovailoa. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for 267.5 yards and -115 odds of throwing for less than 267.5 yards. Here is a closer look at his season splits to see how they compare against his projected passing yards total for this matchup.

• During the season, Tagovailoa has thrown for 3,923 yards. That averages out to 280.1 yards per contest.
• In the Dolphins’ seven home games, he is averaging 284.6 YPG.
• Tagovailoa is averaging 268 YPG in three matchups against NFC-East opponents.
• In Miami’s 12 Sunday games this season, he is averaging 286 passing yards per outing.
• During December, Tagovailoa is averaging 248 YPG.

Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa OVER 267.5 yards