Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills Expert Pick – December 17, 2023

DALLAS COWBOYS VS. BUFFALO BILLS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 17, 2023 – Greetings and salutations, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

After our earlier look at Chicago v Cleveland, my other game of the week features the Dallas Cowboys going on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills.

In a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions, here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this contest and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 8:20 PM ET

Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

TV: FOX

 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Dallas Cowboys (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS)	+1.5	+2	O49.5	+110
Buffalo Bills (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS)	U49.5	-2	U49.5	-130

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Cowboys Push Their Winning Streak To Six Games?

Cowboys Offensive Stats	Cowboys Defensive Stats
Scoring: 32.4 PPG – 1st	Scoring: 17.9 PPG – 4th
Total Yards: 397 YPG – 4th	Yards Allowed: 289.9 YPG – 3rd
Passing: 278.4 YPG – 3rd	Passing Yards Allowed: 183.9 YPG – 5th
Rushing: 118.6 YPG – 11th	Rushing Yards Allowed: 106 YPG – 13th

The Cowboys come into this matchup on fire, posting wins in each of their last five games. This includes a signature 33-13 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14. Dak Prescott finished 24 of 39 for 271 yards to go along with two touchdowns.

Jake Fergus caught five passes for 72 yards. CeeDee Lamb had six receptions totaling 71 yards and a touchdown, while Michael Gallup finished with three catches for 48 yards and a touchdown.

Not only are the Cowboys riding a five-game winning streak, but they have also scored an average of 40 points during that stretch. And just as important, they have been limiting the opposition to just 17 points per game. Although Dallas has been playing some great football, the team must guard against a letdown against a Bills squad trying to keep its playoff hopes alive.

Can The Bills Slow Down The League’s Top-Scoring Offense?

Bills Offensive Stats	Bills Defensive Stats
Scoring: 26.8 PPG – 5th	Points Allowed: 18.8 PPG – 6th
Total Yards: 387.2 YPG – 5th	Yards Allowed: 321.9 YPG – 14th
Passing: 265.2 YPG – 7th	Passing Yards Allowed: 207.9 YPG – 10th
Rushing: 122 YPG – 10th	Rushing Yards Allowed: 114 YPG – 19th

Meanwhile, the Bills had dropped three of their last four decisions before they squeaked out a close 20-17 victory against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. Josh Allen was 23 of 42 for 233 yards. He had one touchdown through the air and a rushing touchdown as well. However, Allen has now thrown an interception in nine consecutive games. James Cook led the team in both rushing (10 carries for 58 yards) and receiving (five catches for 83 yards).

Allen will need to minimize his mistakes. If not, it will be a long day at the office when you give the highest-scoring team in the league extra possessions.

Now, let us look at some noteworthy betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

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The Spread

The Bills opened as a 1.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to two points for Buffalo. The low spread is honestly too close to call for my taste. However, here are a few reasons to go with the road team to cover.

• The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall.
• Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games they have played on a Sunday.
• Overall, the Cowboys are 9-4 ATS, while the Bills are 5-8.
• Although Dallas is a .500 road team against the spread at 3-3, Buffalo is 3-4 against the spread as the home team.
• The Bills are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
• Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games they have played on a Sunday.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys (+2)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 49.5 points. The line moved up slightly to 50 points before sliding back down to 49.5. Here is why the “under” is the best choice in this matchup.

• The UNDER total has prevailed seven times for Dallas in its last 10 road contests.
• In the Cowboys’ last 12 games against AFC-East opponents, the UNDER has cashed in nine times.
• In the Bills’ last six games, the total has gone UNDER five times.
• In the previous eight matchups between these teams, the UNDER total hit six times.
• The UNDER total is a perfect 5-0 in Buffalo’s last five home games.

Prediction: UNDER 49.5 points

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Player Prop Bets

My key player for the Cowboys is Dak Prescott. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 272.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 272.5 passing yards. Not sure which direction to go?

Here is a closer look at how Prescott has fared against Buffalo in his career and some present-day numbers as well.

Prescott has played against the Bills just one time in his career. The game in question occurred back in November 2019. In that contest, he was 32-of-49 for 355 yards along with two touchdowns and one interception. Buffalo won that game 26-15. While his production in that outing exceeds the projected yards total for this matchup, Prescott’s current season trends are not as favorable.

• Prescott has thrown for 3,505 yards in 13 games this season. That averages out to 269.6 YPG.
• In the 10 games he has played on Sunday, Prescott is averaging 260.3 YPG.
• Dallas has played eight times against teams outside of its division. During that stretch, Prescott is averaging 247.8 YPG.
• In three contests against AFC opponents, Prescott’s yard-per-game average is 262.7.
• Lastly, in six road contests this season, Prescott is averaging 230 YPG.

Based on these trends, taking the “under’ for Prescott looks like an easy decision.

Prediction: Dak Prescott UNDER 272.5 yards

My key player for the Bills is Josh Allen. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 257.5 yards and -115 odds of throwing for less than 257.5 yards.

Like Prescott, Allen has played against the Cowboys just once in his career. In the game that was previously mentioned, Allen finished 19-of-24 for 231 yards with one touchdown. His final total is slightly lower than the projected total for this matchup. However, the narrative is a bit different when looking at Allen’s splits this season.

• Allen has amassed 3,447 yards across 13 games. That is an average of 265.2 yards per outing.
• In the 10 Sunday games the Bills have played this season, Allen is averaging 271 yards per contest.
• In nine matchups against non-divisional opponents, Allen’s yards-per-game average is 261.2.
• Allen has thrown for a total of 1,050 yards in four matchups against NFC teams this season. That averages out to 262.5 yards per game.
• In seven home games, Allen is averaging 271.1 passing yards per contest.

As most of the trends indicate, going with the “over” for Allen is the best bet here.

Prediction: Josh Allen OVER 257.5 passing yards

James’s Picks

Spread: Cowboys (+2) Over/Under: UNDER 49.5 points PPB #1: Dak Prescott Under 272.5 yards PPB #2: Josh Allen Over 257.5 yards