Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty Expert Pick – September 26, 2023

CONNECTICUT SUN VS NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 26, 2023 – Hello basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of our featured games from Tuesday includes the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun taking on the No. 2 seed New York Liberty.

Let’s take a look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 8:00 PM ET

 Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

 TV: ESPN2

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty – Series Recap And Betting Trends

The New York Liberty won all four of the regular-season games between these two ball clubs. Two of those four wins were by a double-digit margin. This includes an 89-58 win back on September 1^st. However, the Sun took the opening game of this series 78-63.

DeWanna Bonner led Connecticut with 20 points to go along with seven rebounds, three assists, and three blocks. Rebecca Allen chipped in with 18 points (on 7-for-9 shooting), seven rebounds, two steals and two blocks.

The Sun did an excellent job on the defensive end of the floor. They held New York to 33.8 percent from the field overall, and just 29.6 percent (8-for-27) from beyond the arc. New York Liberty forward, Breanna Stewart, who scored 19 points on just 7-for-25 shooting, offered this analysis following the game.

“They were being aggressive. I don’t think we handled it well, we didn’t stay poised and composed,” Stewart said, via ESPN. “Frustrating to drop this one at home. We’ll bounce back Tuesday.”

Stewart and her teammates will need to play with a greater sense of urgency to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole.

Now, let’s take a look at some key betting trends for both teams.

The Picks

The Spread

Despite losing by 15 points in the series opener, the New York Liberty are 9.5-point favorites for Game 2. Although the Liberty have a 6-2 record against the spread following a straight-up loss, here are a few trends that suggest why going with the Sun to cover the spread may be a wise choice.

• Connecticut is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.
• The Sun are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference teams.
• Connecticut is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five road contests.
• New York is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
• The Liberty are 16-34-2 in the last 52 games they played on a Tuesday.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (+9.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 161.5. Here is a look at why going with the under is the smart play.

• The UNDER is 9-2 in Connecticut’s last 11 games against Eastern Conference teams.
• The UNDER total has prevailed four times in the Sun’s last five games following a straight-up win.
• The UNDER total has a 4-1 record for Connecticut in its last five road games.
• In Connecticut’s last 13 semi-final games, the UNDER is 10-3.
• In the last seven instances in which Connecticut posted a straight-up win, the UNDER is 5-2.
• The UNDER holds a 5-2 record in the Liberty’s last seven games they have faced an opponent with a winning record.
• The UNDER total has hit 10 times in the last 14 meetings between these two ball clubs.
• In the last seven meetings between these teams in New York, the UNDER is 6-1.

 Prediction: Under 159 points

Player Prop Bet

I have two key players to watch in this pivotal Game 2 matchup. My first one is New York Liberty forward, Breanna Stewart. She currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -125 odds of scoring less than 22.5 points.

Stewart posted career highs in points (23.0), rebounds (9.3), and assists (3.8) during the regular season in her first season with the Liberty. But during the playoffs, her production has dipped a bit.

She is averaging 18.7 points per contest while shooting just 28.8 percent from the field. This is a significant drop from the 46.5 percent conversion rate she posted during the regular season. On the flip side of the narrative, Stewart has scored 27 points four times across her last seven outings. And with her team’s back against the wall, look for Stewart to get back on track.

My second key player to watch in this Game 2 matchup is Connecticut Sun forward, DeWanna Bonner. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 18.5 points.

Bonner averaged 17.4 points during the regular season, which is a full point lower than her projected total for this contest. In four postseason contests, she is averaging 21.5 points per outing. This includes a 20-point outing in Game 1. Bonner has scored 18 or more points four times in her last seven outings and I expect that trend to continue here.

Predictions: Breanna Stewart OVER 22.5 points

                         DeWanna Bonner OVER 18.5 points