Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces: Expert Pick – July 1, 2023

CONNECTICUT SUN VS. LAS VEGAS ACES EXPERT PICK – JULY 1, 2023 — Happy Saturday basketball fans. Welcome back to weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. We have two games on tap for Saturday.

The first matchup includes the Connecticut Sun (12-4) taking on the Las Vegas Aces. Read on to find out who has the edge tonight!

Tipoff

When: Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET

Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV

TV: ABC

Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces – Season Trends

The Connecticut Sun have the best record in the Eastern Conference (albeit by a slim one-game lead) and the second-best record in the league. Connecticut has also posted wins in four of its previous five games.

The only setback took place on Tuesday night when they were defeated by the New York Liberty 89-81.

Dijonai Carrington came off the bench and scored a team-high 23 points to go along with six rebounds. Unfortunately, the team’s leading scorer – DeWanna Bonner – was limited to 12 points on 3-for-12 shooting from the field. And Connecticut didn’t do itself any favors by shooting just 39 percent from the floor and 31.6 percent from beyond the arc.

Connecticut is a formidable opponent at both ends of the floor. Why?

• They are ranked fifth in scoring (83.9 PPG).
• They have the third-best offensive rating.
• On defense, they are ranked third in scoring defense (78.2 PPG).
• The same goes for their defensive efficiency (98.1 points per 100 possessions).

The Sun will need a stellar effort at both ends of the floor to get back into the win column against the defending champs.

On the flip side of this matchup, we have an Aces team that has looked virtually unstoppable for the entire season thus far. They kicked off their season with seven straight wins However, their lone loss on the season came against – you guessed it – the Connecticut Sun back on June 8!

But since that momentary hiccup, the Aces have reeled off another seven straight wins, which has propelled them to the best record in the league.

Las Vegas has the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 93.1 points per contest, and they have an offensive rating of 115.5 points per 100 possessions, which is also tops in the WNBA.

They are shooting 50.3 percent from the floor (1st) and 37.7 points from 3-point range (2nd). And Las Vegas also has the best point differential in the league as well (plus-15.4).

The Aces have the second-best defensive rating and the second-best scoring defense as well. And when you look at the numbers, it’s no surprise as to why this team has had so much success this season.

The Picks

Being that these two squads are the top two teams in the league, this game should be fun to watch.

The Spread

The defending champs are an 11.5-point favorite in this matchup. I am not a fan when it comes to large spreads. Although I have a .500 record (1-1) in picking games with large spreads, here are the reasons why I’m going with the UNDER in this one.

• The Sun boast a 15-5 record against the spread in their last 20 road contests.
• Connecticut is 8-3 ATS following an SU loss.
• In their last 51 games against Western Conference teams, Connecticut is 34-15-2.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (+11.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this game is 168 points. Here are a few reasons why going with the OVER could be the best play.

These two teams have played each other twice this season. The combined totals of those contests are 174 and 171 points, respectively. In summary:

• The OVER has prevailed seven times in Connecticut’s last nine games overall.
• The OVER has cashed in five times in the Aces’ last six contests against Eastern Conference opponents.
• In the Aces’ last five games following an ATS win, the OVER has hit four times.

Prediction: OVER 168 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Las Vegas forward A’Ja Wilson. She currently has -115 odds of scoring over and under 20.5 points in this game.

Although Wilson is averaging 18 points in two head-to-head meetings between these two ball clubs, she has exceeded the 21-point threshold in three of her last four outings.

That said, I’m going to go with the OVER here.

Prediction: A’Ja Wilson OVER 20.5 points

James’s Picks

• Connecticut Sun (+11.5)
• OVER 168 points
• PPB: A’Ja Wilson OVER 20.5 points