Connecticut Sun vs. Dallas Wings Expert Pick – August 12, 2023

CONNECTICUT SUN VS. DALLAS WINGS EXPERT PICK – AUGUST 12, 2023 – Happy Saturday basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier look at the Dream vs Sparks, the second game we will preview is the Connecticut Sun (21-8) taking on the Dallas Wings (15-14). 

On paper, it appears that the Sun are the better team. Although they are six games ahead of the Wings in the standings, Dallas is tied for the fourth-best record in the league. Simply put, this may not be the cakewalk that many of us would come to expect. 

And with that in mind, here’s a look at which team has the edge coming into this matchup and why. 

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Tipoff

When: August 11th, 2023 at 8:00 pm EST

Where: College Park Center, Arlington, TX

TV: BSSWX

Odds

Connecticut Sun vs Dallas Wings – Season Trends

What Is There NOT To Like About The Connecticut Sun?

The Connecticut Sun have dropped three of their past five contests. This includes a 90-84 loss to the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday – a game in which they trailed by 21 points (45-24) after the first quarter.

Rebecca Allen led all scorers with 24 points on 9-for-12 shooting from the field and 3-for-4 from 3-point range. The significance of that stat is Allen is averaging 6.5 points per outing this season.

Alyssa Thomas tallied 20 points, 11 boards, and eight dimes. It was her fifth double-double in a seven-game stretch that also included two triple-doubles. Taking those numbers into consideration, it should not come as a surprise that she was recently selected as the Eastern Conference Player of the Week. 

When you look at the metrics, the Sun are a formidable team across multiple fronts. They have the fourth-best scoring offense (83.9 PPG) and defensive rating (106.3 points per 100 possessions).

Connecticut has the best-scoring defense (78.4 PPG) and the second-best defensive rating. The Sun are a top-five team in opponent shooting (42.8 percent) and they lead the league in opponent 3-point shooting, as teams are converting just 31.3 percent of their attempts from distance. In other words, this game could get out of hand early. 

Dallas Wings Can Score But Don’t Defend Very Well

Like Connecticut, the Wings have been struggling as well, dropping four of their last five games. This includes a demoralizing 104-84 defeat at the hands of the Las Vegas Aces. Satou Sabally scored a team-high 21 points in a losing effort but shot just 6-for-17 from the floor.

She wasn’t the only player to have a bad night as the team shot just 37.5 percent from the field. And despite outscoring the Aces by a 32-18 margin in the final frame, the margin of victory was still 20 points. 

When it comes to scoring, the Dallas Wings are as good as any team in the league. This sentiment is supported by the fact they are ranked third in both scoring and offensive efficiency. But that is where the positives begin and end for this team, as they are pedestrian in other key areas. 

• Points allowed: 84.2 (10th)
• Defensive rating: 105.2 per 100 possessions (8th)
• Shooting efficiency: 43.3 percent (7th)
• 3PT Shooting efficiency: 30.3 percent (12th)
• Opponent 3PT Shooting: 35.6 percent (10th)

In other words, Dallas will need to bring its “A” game to snap their three-game losing streak.

The Picks

The Spread

Oddly enough, the Dallas Wings are a 2.5-point favorite in this contest. As much as I like an underdog story, here is why I’m going with the road team to win and cover. 

• The Sun are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Connecticut is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 games when playing on one day of rest.
• In its last 28 games, Connecticut is an impressive 20-8 ATS.
• Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
• The Wings are 1-5 ATS in their last five home games. 

Prediction: (Connecticut Sun +2.5)

Over/Under

The projected scoring total for this game is 167.5 points. Here are a few noteworthy stats that suggest why going with the UNDER could be a wise move. 

• The UNDER is 5-2 for the Sun in their last seven road games. 
• The UNDER total has prevailed 12 times in the last 17 head-to-head matchups.
• The last seven times these teams have played in Dallas, the UNDER has prevailed six times (6-1). 

Prediction: UNDER 167.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch from this contest is none other than Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas. She currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 14.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 14.5 points.

Thomas is averaging career-highs in points (14.9), rebounds (10.1) and assists (8.2). And as it was mentioned earlier, Thomas recently posted her fifth double-double over her last seven outings and has scored 15 or more points five times during that stretch. 

Based on the numbers, and the fact the Wings aren’t an elite defensive team, I strongly believe that Thomas will go over the 14.5-point projected total.

Prediction: Alyssa Thomas OVER 14.5 points