Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces Expert Pick – September 13, 2023
CHICAGO SKY VS. LAS VEGAS ACES EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 13, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome to our WNBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. The regular season has concluded and the postseason is now upon us.
After our earlier look at the Lynx vs. Sun, our other Wednesday night game features the No. 8 Chicago Sky taking on the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces. Not only did the Aces finish with the best record in the league, they are also the defending champions.
If there was ever a David vs Goliath battle in these playoffs, this is it. With that being said, here is a look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Chicago Sky(18-22, SU) |
+16.5 |
+16.5 |
o170 |
+1000 |
Las Vegas Aces(34-6, SU) |
u170 |
-16.5 |
u170 |
-1800 |
Tipoff
When: Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET
Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV: ESPN
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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CHICAGO SKY VS. LAS VEGAS ACES – REGULAR SEASON AND BETTING TRENDS
Chicago Sky Will Keep It Close But Come Up Short In The End
Despite their roller-coaster season, the Chicago Sky advanced to the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year. They come into the matchup riding the wave of a three-game winning streak. This includes a 102-91 victory against the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun in the last game of the season.
Courtney Williams paced Chicago with 23 points, 16 rebounds, and 13 assists. She was one of four Sky players to score at least 16 points in that contest. Although the team finished with a sub-.500 record (18-22), Chicago was ranked sixth in scoring (81.7 PPG) and they were also ranked sixth in points allowed (83.4 PPG).
Las Vegas Will Be Too Much For Chicago
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces come into this matchup on the heels of a four-game winning streak, marking the fifth time they have had a winning streak of at least four games this season. In their last game of the regular season, the Aces defeated the Phoenix Mercury 100-85. A’ja Wilson led the way with 36 points, eight rebounds, five steals, and three blocks. Kelsey Plum chipped in with 30 points, three rebounds, three assists, and two steals.
Although Las Vegas finished just two games ahead of the New York Liberty, this team was head and shoulders above the rest of the playing field. Las Vegas was tops in the league in both scoring and efficiency. They also had the second-best scoring defense (80.3 PPG) and they finished first in defensive efficiency, allowing (99.2 points per 100 possessions).
While I expect Chicago to compete at a high level, it is difficult to foresee a scenario in which they would win this series.
The Picks
The Spread
The Las Vegas are favored to win Game 1 by 16.5 points. Yep, Las Vegas finished the season 16 games ahead of Chicago, so the irony of that fact is not lost on me. However, here is why I’m going to buck the trend and go with Chicago to cover this spread.
- These teams met three times during the regular season and Las Vegas won each of those meetings. However, Chicago covered the spread each time.
- Chicago is 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last eight games overall.
- The Sky are 4-1 ATS in their last five road contests.
- Chicago is 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the defending champs.
- The Sky are 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games against Las Vegas.
- Las Vegas is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.
- The Aces are just 2-4 ATS in their last six home games.
Prediction: Chicago Sky (+16.5)
Over/Under
The projected over/under total for this contest is 170 points. Here is why I am going with the OVER in this matchup.
- The OVER total has prevailed six times in Chicago’s last eight games.
- In Chicago’s last six games against the Aces, the OVER total hit five times.
- The OVER total is 11-3 in the Sky’s last 14 games against the Aces.
- The OVER is 4-1 for Las Vegas in its last five games overall.
Prediction: OVER 170 points
Player Prop Bet
Since I am picking Las Vegas to win the series, it makes sense that my key player to watch in this game is A’ja Wilson. She currently has -115 odds to score over 23.5 points and -115 odds to score less than 23.5 points.
Wilson averaged 22.8 points this season, which is just slightly below her projected scoring total for this game. Her 36-point outing against the Mercury was the third straight game in which she put up at least 30 points. Wilson has also scored 23 or more points seven times in her last nine games.
