Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints Expert Pick – November 5, 2023

CHICAGO BEARS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS EXPERT PICK – NOVEMBER 5, 2023 – Happy Sunday, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

My featured game of the week is the Chicago Bears (2-6) going on the road to take on the New Orleans Saints (4-4).

Here is a look at which team had the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Caesar Superdome, New Orleans, LA

TV: CBS

Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Following an 0-4 start, the Bears have split their last four contests. In the team’s recent outing, Chicago had a poor showing in a 30-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Rookie quarterback, Tyson Bagent, completed 22 of 37 passes for 232 yards. However, he also threw two interceptions. After averaging 170 rushing yards in Weeks 4-7, Chicago tallied just 73 rushing yards on 25 carries. Given the fact the Bears’ do not have a roster that is built to come back from large deficits, they must not allow the Saints to jump out to a huge lead.

On the other side of this matchup, the Saints have dropped four of their last six games following a 2-0 start. In Week 8, the Saints defeated the Indianapolis Colts 38-27. The Saints accumulated 350 passing yards and 161 rushing yards. It was the third straight game in which they produced at least 400 yards of offense. As was the case in the game against the Chargers last week, I expect Derek Carr to have a big day against a defense that is ranked 30^th in passing yards allowed per game (262.3).

The Picks

The Spread

The Saints opened as a 4.5-point favorite. That line has drastically moved up to 9.5. Here are a few trends that suggest why picking the Saints to cover is the right play.

• The Bears have not covered the spread in each of their last seven road games that were played on a Sunday.
• Chicago is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games.
• In their last seven games against the Saints, the Bears are 2-5 against the spread.
• The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road contests.
• Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against the NFC South division.
• New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last five outings against teams in the NFC North division.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints (-9.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest opened at 40.5 points. That line has moved slightly to 41 points. Here is why I am going with the OVER in this matchup.

• The two teams are averaging a combined scoring total of 42.8 points per contest while giving up 46.3 points per outing.
• Out of the eight games Chicago has played this season, seven of those games exceeded the projected point total in this contest.
• The OVER total has hit for Chicago in six of its last eight road contests.
• In the Bears’ last five November games, the OVER prevailed four times.

Prediction: OVER 41 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this matchup is Saints quarterback Derek Carr. He currently has -115 odds of passing for more than 254.5 yards and -115 odds of passing for less than 254.5 yards. Here is why I like the OVER here.

Sure, Carr is averaging 238.8 passing yards per contest. And in three career games against the Bears, he is averaging just 210.3 yards per contest.

On the flip side of the narrative, Carr has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his last three outings. Given Chicago’s struggles in this area, look for Carr to exceed the projected yards total in this matchup.

Prediction: Derek Carr OVER 254.5 yards