Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Expert Pick – November 19, 2023
CHICAGO BEARS VS. DETROIT LIONS EXPERT PICK – NOVEMBER 19, 2023 – Greetings football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.
My game of the week features the Chicago Bears (3-7) taking on the Detroit Lions (7-2). On paper, this is a complete mismatch across the board. But they still have to play the games, right?
Without further delay, here’s a look at which team has the edge going into this NFC-North Division matchup and why.
Kickoff
When: Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit MI
TV: FOX
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Chicago Bears
|
+8.5 |
+7.5 |
O48 |
+340 |
Detroit Lions
|
U45 |
-7.5 |
U48 |
-440 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends
It is no secret that the Bears have had a disappointing season thus far. Following an 0-4 start, Chicago has gone 3-3 over its last six contests. In their most recent outing, the Bears escaped with a 16-13 win against the Carolina Panthers – a team that has just one win on its resume. A win is a win as the saying goes. But a three-point victory over the Panthers is not anything the fan base should be overly excited about.
On the other side of this matchup, we have a Lions squad that is balling out right now. Their 41-38 win over the Chargers last week was their sixth victory in their last seven games. Their only defeat during that span was a 38-6 blowout at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. And in those six wins, the Lions have held their opponents to 15 points per contest.
Detroit is ranked 2nd in total offense (406.4 YPG), fourth in passing yards per outing (267.4), and fourth in rushing yards per outing (139.0). Conversely, the Bears are ranked 20th, 24th, and 5th in these categories.
On the other side of the football, the Lions are ranked ninth in total defense and 20th in points allowed per outing. Meanwhile, the Bears are ranked 15th in total yards and 25th in points allowed.
Even in the areas where the Lions are not world-beaters, they are still better than the Bears. Simply put, even if you have never bet on a game in your life, this is the one matchup where you can feel safe about going with the home team to come out on top, and by a large margin.
Now that we have set the table for this divisional matchup, here is a look at the betting trends for both sides.
The Picks
The Spread
Some sportsbooks had the Lions as a 10-point favorite coming into this matchup. At the time of this writing, that line has moved a bit to 7.5. I’m guessing the reports about Justin Fields returning to action this week had something to do with the spread change. Whether the line is 8, 10, or even 15 points, here is why going with the Lions to cover is a no-brainer.
- The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
- In its last nine home games, Detroit is an impressive 8-1 against the spread.
- The Lions are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 matchups against NFC opponents.
- Detroit has successfully covered the spread in each of their last 11 matchups against teams in the NFC North Division.
- Meanwhile, the Bears are an atrocious 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 outings.
- Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Lions.
- The Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against NFC teams.
- In their last three road games as 7.5-point underdogs or more, the Bears are 1-2 against the spread.
- Chicago is 0-6 ATS in their last six matchups against divisional opponents.
- Furthermore, in the last eight instances in which the Bears were underdogs following a win, they failed to cover the spread ALL eight times.
Prediction: Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Over/Under
The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 45. The total has moved up to 48 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the OVER could be a wise choice.
- The OVER total has hit six times in Chicago’s 10 games this season.
- In the Bears’ last 18 Sunday games, the OVER has prevailed 12 times.
- The OVER has hit for the Lions five times in their nine games this season.
- In Detroit’s last six games, the OVER total cashed in four times.
- The last 12 times that Detroit has played as the favorite; the OVER total is 8-4.
Prediction: OVER 48 points
Player Prop Bet
With Fields back in the mix this week, he is my key player to watch in this contest. He currently has -115 odds of finishing with more than 199.5 passing yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 199.5 yards.
In three career games against the Lions, Fields is averaging a pedestrian 150.3 passing yards per outing. That’s the bad news. On the flip side of the narrative, Fields had his two best outings of the season before the team’s 19-13 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Oct. 15.
He registered 335 yards against the Denver Broncos in Week 4 and 282 yards against the Washington Commanders the following week. Additionally, Fields has exceeded the projected passing yards total for this matchup four times this season.
Given those trends, I’m expecting Fields to exceed 199.5 yards, albeit not by much.
Prediction: Justin Fields OVER 199.5 total yards
James’s Picks |
Spread: Lions (-7.5)
|
