BYU vs. Kansas Expert Pick and Prediction – February 27, 2024

BYU VS. KANSAS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 27, 2024 — If the NCAA tournament was played at Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas would be the overwhelming favorite to win the title. The Jayhawks have been so unbeatable in their building that even defending champion and likely top seed Connecticut couldn’t handle them there.

BYU now gets to try, a strong reminder of how tough life is in the Big 12. The Cougars have held their own in the league thanks to their play in the Marriott Center. But they’ve been the definition of a home-court hero, losing to everyone but UCF and West Virginia outside of Provo. In their past three road games, BYU hasn’t kept the margin to single digits even once.

Related: Cincinnati vs. Houston Pick and Prediction

And that’s a problem, given the quality of the opposition. Kansas has looked awful away from Allen Fieldhouse at times, but the Jayhawks gave another strong reminder how deadly they are at home by whacking Texas last time out. Out of the Jayhawks’ past four visitors, only Baylor kept the margin to within 10 points, despite facing the likes of Houston and Texas.

Kansas needs a miracle to win a share of the Big 12, but the Jayhawks still want to lock down a top-two seed in the NCAA tournament. That only happens if they keep up the wins in Lawrence.

Hey, while you’re at it, click here to check out our Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks!

The Odds

Matchup

Open

Spread

Points

Moneyline

BYU

(19-8 SU, 15-12 ATS)

O153

+6.5

O152.5

+230

Kansas

(21-6 SU, 12-14 ATS)

-6

-6.5

U152.5

-285

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, February 27 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kan.

TV: ESPN+

Public Bets: 88% on Kansas

Public Money: 97% on Kansas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 26th, 2024

BYU vs. Kansas In-Season Trends

If you think betting Kansas to cover at Allen Fieldhouse is a certain win, you’re wrong. The Jayhawks have certainly been strong in Lawrence, winning every home game this season, but they’ve gone just 4-3 ATS in the Phog this year.

The UNDER has been more effective than you think in Kansas games this season. The Jayhawks have played 4-2-1 to the under in their past seven, with the exceptions coming because they reached 86 points on Texas and the over was ridiculously low against Houston.

Betting BYU has been a bad idea for most of the conference season. The Cougars finally figured out a cover against Baylor, but they went right back to failing to cover in a 10-point loss at Kansas State. For the year, BYU is 4-10 ATS in Big 12 play, and the only cover the Cougars have away from Provo was their win at West Virginia.

The Difference-Makers

Hunter Dickinson is capable of taking over a game entirely on his own. Kansas coach Bill Self described the Jayhawks’ big man as a player you fit your offense around, and the Jayhawks have done that. Against Oklahoma, Dickinson was devastating with 20 points and 16 rebounds, a performance that the Sooners had no answer for in a 10-point Kansas win.

Related: Pittsburgh vs. Clemson Pick and Prediction

BYU will attempt a lot of 3-pointers, ranking second in the nation to North Florida in 3-point attempts per game. Problem is, the Cougars aren’t as accurate as the Ospreys and certainly not as accurate as Big 12 leader Baylor.

BYU’s success depends on hitting the occasional 3-pointer or getting the rebound and trying again. Getting accurate shooting from Jaxson Robinson is a must, because the Cougars aren’t getting many rebounds away from Dickinson.

The Pick

This is a terrible matchup for BYU. The Cougars make a living on getting second chances when they do miss from behind the arc. Their 3-point shooting is only slightly above average, so they need a lot of chances to win games.

Kansas excels at cutting off teams’ chances. The Jayhawks force teams to shoot it deep, knowing that Dickinson is there to grab the rebound and limit the opponent to one bad look per trip. BYU will be happy to play along with shooting the 3-pointer, but the Cougars don’t have the other half of the equation with Dickinson in the low post.

Kansas has the edge on the other end of the court, and BYU’s lost three straight road games by double digits. Look for the Jayhawks to make that four.

BYU vs. Kansas Expert Pick – February 27, 2024