BUNDESLIGA PICKS: MATCHWEEK 31 

BUNDESLIGA PICKS: MATCHWEEK 31 – With only one clash on Sunday, this weekend’s duo of picks starts off with a crucial Saturday battle between two contenders for a top-four finish, and UEFA Champions League football next term. 

Freiburg (4th) vs RB Leipzig (5th) 

Date: Saturday, 05/06/2023 at 09:30 AM EST 

Pitch: Freiburg – Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg, Germany 

Current Bundesliga Form: | Freiburg (WWWLD) | RB Leipzig (WLWWL) | 

Last Bundesliga Match: | Cologne 0-1 Freiburg | | RB Leipzig 1-0 Hoffenheim | 

Head to Head 

Freiburg	1-5	RB Leipzig	05/02/2023	DFB-Pokal
RB Leipzig	3-1	Freiburg	11/09/2022	Bundesliga
Freiburg	1-1	RB Leipzig	05/21/2022	DFB-Pokal
RB Leipzig	1-1	Freiburg	03/05/2022	Bundesliga
Freiburg	1-1	RB Leipzig	10/16/2021	Bundesliga

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +270 | TIE: +260 | AWAY: -115 | 

Prop Bet: | RB Leipzig to win by 2 Goals (+390) |  

Tips 

• Four of Freiburg’s last five wins have come by a one-goal margin. 
• Coincidentally the same applies to three of RB Leipzig’s previous four victories. 

• Three of Freiburg’s previous four home games have produced an even number of total goals. 
• Just one of Leipzig’s previous 11 games has ended level. 
• Five of Leipzig’s last six away victories saw them lead 1-0 at halftime. 

The Word 

Tuesday’s DFB Pokal clash between these sides gave 5-1 winners RB Leipzig a huge psychological boost ahead of this one. But that only leaves Freiburg thirsting for revenge, in what is clearly a crucial game yet in determining which team of three sitting just below the titanic ‘Bayern v Dortmund’ title fight falls just short of the top-four. 

If Freiburg are to gain revenge for their cup result, expect a quick start from them, with all but one of their five latest victories at home seeing them score inside the first 15 minutes. 

As for Leipzig, the pressure is all on them to get a positive result, but they have the joint-best attack of any team outside the top-two. Freiburg are usually too smart and well-organized to fall into the usual traps the Red Bulls inflict on lesser sides, but it’s hard to see anything except another Leipzig win on Tuesday’s evidence. 

PREDICTION: FREIBURG 0 – 2 RB LEIPZIG (+650)

With Freiburg winning in several key metrics against Leipzig in their cup loss, a 5-1 scoreline doesn’t tell the whole story. 

Dortmund (2nd) vs VfL Wolfsburg (7th) 

Date: Sunday, 05/07/2023 at 11:30 AM EST 

Pitch: Dortmund – Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany 

Current Bundesliga Form: | Dortmund (DWDWL) | VfL Wolfsburg (WWDLD) | 

Last Bundesliga Match: | VfL Bochum 1-1 Dortmund | | VfL Wolfsburg 3-0 FSV Mainz | 

Head to Head 

VfL Wolfsburg	2-0	Dortmund	11/08/2022	Bundesliga
Dortmund	6-1	VfL Wolfsburg	04/16/2022	Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg	1-3	Dortmund	11/27/2021	Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg	0-2	Dortmund	04/24/2021	Bundesliga
Dortmund	2-0	VfL Wolfsburg	01/03/2021	Bundesliga

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -215 | TIE: +370 | AWAY: +425 | 

Prop Bet: | First Goal Time: 11-20 Mins (+310) |  

Tips 

• Dortmund’s last five home wins all saw them score an even number of team goals. 
• Nobody has struck first inside the 16th-30th minute at home more than BVB (seven times). 

• All but one of Wolfsburg’s last seven games won or lost have seen a 2+ goal margin. 
• The same trait applies to each of their six most recent defeats at Dortmund. 
• Wolfsburg have conceded exactly twice in each of their last five Bundesliga away losses. 

The Word 

Dortmund may have slipped back to second place after a disappointing draw away to Bochum. But they only get more solid by the week at home, with their 4-0 win over Frankfurt on April 22 being the 48th home league game in succession to see them find the net. 

And even though Wolfsburg could still easily snatch fifth place and a Europa League spot for next season, it seems a simple case of ‘who’ and ‘how many’ for Dortmund. We are saying three, and with Donyell Malen as a prime candidate to score first, with the flying Dutchman having netted before halftime in each of the Black and Yellows’ last three home matches:

Overall, the ever-vocal ‘Yellow Wall’ have every reason to believe that their heroes complete a run of ten straight home league wins for the first time since October 2021. 

PREDICTION: DORTMUND 3 – 1 WOLFSBURG (+800) 

 

Saturday’s Hot Tip: 

Bayern Munich to beat Werder Bremen 3-0 (+750) 

The ‘must win’ feel of Dortmund’s clash with Wolfsburg is expected to be exacerbated by Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich winning the day before, especially with the Reds appearing to have finally shaken off the effects of a recent poor run of form and Champions League elimination, after beating Hertha Berlin 2-0. 

While the scoreline makes it look like a routine win, it’s worth noting that they took over an hour to breach Hertha, the worst team in the league by a distance, so they still need to be on their A-game to open up a temporary four-point gap over Dortmund at the top. 

Yet, as richly evidenced by their preceding streak of ten straight Bundesliga titles, Bayern have a long-standing tradition of thriving on pressure, and look as though they will be difficult to lodge from pole position in the closing laps of a title race for the ages. In addition, they last lost to Werder Bremen way back in September 2008. 

Prices correct as of May 2, 2023. Stats do not include friendly matches. 

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