Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Expert Pick – February 11, 2024

BOSTON CELTICS VS. MIAMI HEAT EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 11, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Sunday’s slate features the Boston Celtics (40-12 SU, 24-26-2 ATS) taking on the Miami Heat (28-24 SU, 23-28-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, February 11, 2024

Time: 2:00 PM ET

Where: Kaseya Center

Location: Miami, FL

TV: ABC

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Celtics Looking For Another Blowout Win Against The Heat

Boston Celtics Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.6 PPG – 4TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.3 points per 100 possessions – 1ST
• Scoring Defense: 111.1 PPG – 7TH   
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.8 points per 100 possessions – 3RD

The Celtics have the best record in the Eastern Conference, and they have produced eight wins across their last 10 outings. Boston enters this matchup on a three-game winning streak, with wins against the Memphis Grizzlies (131-91), Atlanta Hawks (125-117) and the Washington Wizards (133-129).

In the team’s most recent victory against the Wizards, four of the Celtics’ starters scored in double figures. Jayson Tatum led the way with 35 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists, and two blocked shots.

 Kristaps Porzingis chipped in with 34 points and 11 rebounds.  Jrue Holiday contributed 20 points on 9-for-13 shooting from the floor to go along with seven rebounds, and five assists.

 “We are working on playing very intentional basketball,” said Jaylen Brown, who had 18 points. “It’s a full journey in a season. It’s going to be highs and lows. It’s going to be games where shots are not going in and through at all. We’ve got to stick together. And that’s what we’ve been doing.”

In the previous meeting between these two teams, the Celtics clobbered the Heat to the tune of 143-110 while shooting 63.7 percent from the field. Needless to say, Boston is hoping for a similar result when these teams clash on Sunday.

Can The Heat Finally Get Into The Win Column Against The Celtics?

Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 110.5 PPG – 27^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.7 points per 100 possessions – 22^ND    
• Scoring Defense: 110.8 PPG – 5^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.0 points per 100 possessions – 9^TH

Meanwhile, the Heat currently occupy the eighth spot in the conference playoff race and trail the Orlando Magic by just a half-game for the No. 7 spot. Although Miami has won just four times in their last 10 decisions, they come into this tilt riding a two-game winning streak.

This includes a 116-104 win against the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night. Tyler Herro scored a team-high 24 points on 10-for-15 shooting from the field and 4-for-7 from beyond the arc.

Bam Adebayo added 20 points and five rebounds. Jimmy Butler finished with a triple-double, that included 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists.

Boston has won both regular-season matchups between these two ball clubs. With that in mind, the Heat are looking to get into the win column against the league’s top team.

Now that we have all the preliminary stuff out of the way, let us look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Celtics opened as a 6.5-point favorite. The line has dipped to 5.5 points for the road team. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Boston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games against the Heat.
• In their last six matchups against Southwest Division opponents, the Celtics are 4-2 against the spread.
• Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last five February contests.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS across their last five games.
• Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last seven matchups against Eastern Conference teams.
• In their last six February games, the Heat are 4-2 against the spread.

Taking into consideration that the Celtics have beaten the Heat by a combined total of 52 points in their previous two matchups, going with the road team to cover is the best play here.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 226 points. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed. Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER nine times in the Celtics’ last 13 games.
• The UNDER total has prevailed four times in Boston’s last five road contests.
• In the Heat’s last 10 home games, the UNDER total cashed in eight times.
• The total has gone UNDER 10 times in Miami’s last 15 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents.

Prediction: UNDER 226 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch in this matchup is Jayson Tatum. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Tatum is averaging 27 points per outing.
• In 22 road contests this season, he is averaging 26.7 PPG.
• Tatum has played against Eastern Conference opponents 31 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27 points per contest.
• Tatum has played against Southeast Division teams 10 times this season. In those contests, he has averaged 29.4 points per game.
• Over the past 10 games, he is averaging 27.4 points per outing, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Going with the “over” for Tatum is the best option based on the above trends.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum OVER 26.5 points