Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Expert Pick – March 7, 2024

BOSTON CELTICS VS. DENVER NUGGETS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 7, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Boston Celtics (48-13 SU, 30-28-3 ATS) taking on the Denver Nuggets (42-20 SU, 27-33-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Thursday, March 7, 2024

Time: 10:00 PM ET

Where: Ball Arena

Location: Denver, CO

TV: TNT and NBCS-BOS

 

Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Boston Celtics (48-13 SU, 30-28-3 ATS)	-2	+1.5	O221.5	+100
Denver Nuggets (42-20 SU, 27-33-2 ATS)	U223	-1.5	U221.5	-120

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Celtics Get Back On Track Against The Defending Champs?

 Boston Celtics Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 121.0 PPG – 3^RD
• Offensive Efficiency: 122.6 points per 100 possessions – 1^ST
• Scoring Defense: 109.8 PPG – 4^TH                  
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.2 points per 100 possessions – 2^ND

The Boston Celtics have the league’s best record and are a top-five team at both ends of the floor. However, they enter this matchup seeing their 11-game winning streak snapped with a 105-104 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday night.

Boston had three starters score at least 20 points. Jayson Tatum led the way with 26 points and 13 rebounds.

Kristaps Porzingis added 24 points, nine rebounds and three assists. Jaylen Brown contributed 21 points and four rebounds.

Boston led by as many as 22 points (93-71) in the fourth quarter. But thanks to a 3-point barrage by Dean Wade, the Cavaliers managed to come out on top.

“Whether everybody wants to throw it away or not, we’ve got to look at the film and address some stuff, because that matters,” Jaylen Brown said via CBS Sports. “Your habits are everything. Your mentality is everything. And every game, you can’t waste no possessions, you can’t waste no time out there on the floor. So, today matters. We need to look at that.”

The Celtics will look to get back on track against the defending champions, who handed them their first home loss back on Jan. 19.

Can The Denver Nuggets Sweep The Season Series Against The League’s Top Team?

 Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 114.4 PPG – 16^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.0 points per 100 possessions – 9^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 110.4 PPG – 7^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.9 points per 100 possessions – 10^TH

The Nuggets are currently in the No.3 spot out west and trail the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves by just one game for the top spot in the conference playoff race. Denver saw its six-game winning streak snapped with a 117-107 overtime loss against the Phoenix Suns.

As was the case with the Celtics in their previous outing, Denver also had three starters that put up at least 20 points in their recent defeat. Jamal Murray paced the Nuggets’ offense with 28 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds.

Nikola Jokic – who has the second-most triple-doubles in the league — scored 25 points, pulled down 13 rebounds, and handed out six assists. Michael Porter Jr. added 20 points and seven rebounds in a losing effort.

Denver rallied from a 22-point deficit in the third quarter and led by three points late in regulation. However, Kevin Durant tied the game with a clutch 3-point basket. Jokic failed to hit a floater on the ensuing possession, sending the game into overtime. Phoenix dominated the extra session, outscoring Denver by a 17-7 margin.

“I’ve seen Jokic make that 95 out of 100 times. We all thought it was going in.” “Such a winnable game. That may be one of the worst losses we’ve had,” Murray said after the game. “It’s tough. It’s just tough.”

In the first meeting between these two teams, Murray and Jokic combined for 69 points. The Nuggets are hoping for a similar effort against the league’s top team.

Now that we have set the table for this potential NBA Finals preview, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

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The Spread

The Nuggets opened as a consensus two-point underdog (per Pre-Game.com). That line has swung in the other direction, as the defending champions are now a 1.5-point favorite. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
• Boson is 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests against Denver.
• In their last seven games Northwest Division opponents, the Celtics are 1-6 against the spread.
• The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven outings.
• In their last five home games, Denver is 4-1 against the spread.

True, the Nuggets are the defending champions, and this matchup is on their home court. On the other hand, the Celtics are coming off a stinging loss in which they blew a 22-point lead. With that in mind, picking the top league in the association to cover a small spread is a slam dunk.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (+1.5)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 223 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 221.5 points. Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Celtics’ last five outings.
• In Boston’s last 10 matchups against Western Conference teams, the UNDER total cashed in eight times.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Nuggets’ last five contests.
• The UNDER total is 7-3 in Denver’s last 10 matchups against the Celtics.
• In Denver’s last six home games, the UNDER total prevailed five times.
• The total has gone UNDER eight times in the Nugget’s last nine matchups against Eastern Conference teams.

Prediction: UNDER 221.5 points

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Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch in this matchup is Nikola Jokic. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points.

Let’s look at how Jokic’s numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 16 career games against the Nuggets, Jokic is averaging 22.3 points per contest.
• On the season, Jokic is averaging 25.9 points across 60 outings.
• In 30 home contests, he is averaging 24.7 PPG.
• Jokic has played against Eastern Conference teams 24 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 23.9 points per outing.
• In seven matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, he is averaging 29.1 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Jokic has averaged 24.1 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Nikola Jokic UNDER 25.5 points

James Tillman’s Celtics vs. Nuggets Picks

Spread: Celtics (+1.5) Over/Under: UNDER 221.5 points Player Prop Bet: Nikola Jokic UNDER 25.5 points