Baylor vs. BYU Expert Pick and Prediction – February 20, 2024
BAYLOR VS. BYU EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 20, 2024 — It’s rare that both teams get a chance to make a statement, but that’s exactly what exists here for Baylor and BYU.
The Cougars have settled into life in the Big 12 just fine, and they’re now right on track to qualify for the NCAA tournament for just the second time in nine years. Their road showings have left a little to be desired, but they’ve been outstanding at the Marriott Center, having only lost to Cincinnati and Houston. Of the old-line Big 12 teams, three have come into Provo this season, and none have come closer than Kansas State’s six-point defeat.
Baylor becomes the latest to try, and the Bears could really use a signature win to seal their seed. The Bears’ chances of getting a regional in Dallas are virtually zero with Houston having a lock on a top seed, but they could still find their way to Los Angeles and a much easier task than trying to beat Connecticut in Boston or Purdue in Detroit.
The Bears won the first meeting with the Cougars in Waco, and they did it by getting themselves to the line regularly. If the whistles aren’t as kind at the Marriott Center, Baylor might be the next Big 12 victim to come out of Provo with a loss.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Points |
Moneyline |
Baylor(19-6 SU, 15-7-2 ATS) |
O156 |
+4.5 |
O153.5 |
-155 |
Brigham Young(18-7 SU, 14-11 ATS) |
-2.5 |
-4.5 |
U153.5 |
+130 |
Tipoff
When: Tuesday, February 20 at 9 p.m. EST
Where: Marriott Center, Provo, Utah
TV: ESPN
Public Bets: 75% on Brigham Young
Public Money: 84% Brigham Young
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 20th, 2024
Related: Connecticut vs. Creighton Expert Pick
Baylor vs. Brigham Young In-Season Trends
Baylor has excelled at playing close games. The Bears have taken four losses in the Big 12 this season, and all of them have come by four points or less. Even going to Kansas couldn’t break that streak, as the Bears gave the Jayhawks one of their toughest tests at Allen Fieldhouse this season.
If good teams win and great teams cover, BYU is the definition of a good team. The Cougars might be winning enough to sit in the Big 12’s upper half, but they’re certainly not making money for bettors. The Cougars are just 3-9 ATS in 12 league games, and they’re just 2-4 ATS in home Big 12 games.
BYU has also leaned OVER at home, going 4-2 to the over in Provo. 
The Difference-Makers
The matchup with BYU might have been Jalen Bridges’ best game of the season. Bridges dropped 25 on the Cougars, in large part because he took advantage of the game flow. The Bears get to the line better than almost anyone in the Big 12, and the Cougars’ interior defense is really weak. If Bridges gets the ball inside, he’s highly likely to score.
BYU might not be able to stop the inside scoring, but there’s nobody better at scoring inside itself. However, Noah Waterman did virtually nothing against Baylor in the first meeting. Fouls weren’t the problem in Waco; Waterman just didn’t play well. The Cougars need more from the interior scorers in this game.
The Pick
With BYU giving up an abundance of points and playing so many tight games, this looks like another game the Cougars might win but not cover. BYU shot much better than Baylor in the first meeting, but the Bears neutralized that advantage with how well they got to the line.
Baylor’s tendency to lose tight games likely shows up again here. With the early money coming in on BYU, the value’s now with the visitors.
Dan’s Picks |
Baylor +4.5Over 153.5 |
