Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves Expert Pick – May 5, 2023 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS. ATLANTA BRAVES EXPERT PICK – May 5, 2023 — It’s been a great time to be an Oriole, unless you’re pitcher Dean Kremer. While Baltimore has gotten off to a strong start this year, Kremer isn’t looking like the pitcher he was a season ago. In 2022, Kremer found the strike zone consistently, pitched intelligently and kept the ball in the park. Last season, he allowed just 11 home runs in 125.1 innings, giving the Orioles several strong starts that let the team’s fielders make a play. 

This season, Kremer isn’t really doing much positive for the Orioles. In five of six appearances this year, he’s given up at least four earned runs. It gets worse, as Kremer has already almost matched last year’s home run total. In six starts, he’s given up seven home runs, and he hasn’t exactly been facing great offenses. Other than a shutout of Washington, Kremer has had real trouble with keeping the ball in the park, which could be a real problem against an Atlanta squad that pounds the ball. 

Max Fried hasn’t had those problems, as he’s barely allowing people to get to on base, let alone blast one into the seats. Only one run has been earned against him all season, and he’s already silenced both the Mets and the Padres at home. He makes Atlanta a big favorite in the opener of this weekend series, far more than you’d expect against a Baltimore team that’s 11 games over .500.  

The Odds 

First Pitch 

When: Friday, May 5nd at 7:20 p.m. EDT

Where: Truist Park, Atlanta

Starting Pitchers: Dean Kremer, BAL (2-1, 6.67 ERA, 25 K’s) vs. Max Fried, ATL (2-0, 0.45 ERA, 18 K’s)

Public Bets: 78% on Atlanta

Public Money: 80% on Atlanta

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 5th, 2023 

Baltimore vs. Atlanta In-Season Trends 

These offenses get off to fairly quick stats, as both Baltimore and Atlanta average more than three runs per game in the first five innings. In the Braves’ case, this seems like an ideal time to back them to put up some solid numbers in the first five innings. Starting pitching is not the way that Baltimore wins games; the Orioles do the job by getting some runs on the board and then getting the game to their bullpen. The Oriole bullpen has a 3.16 ERA collectively, which ranks sixth in the majors and should help Baltimore with its comeback efforts should the Birds have trouble getting to Fried. 

These teams haven’t put up a lot of runs against each other lately, which also makes the five inning play an intriguing option. The UNDER has cashed in five straight meetings between the two, and with Fried putting up zeroes like nobody’s business, there’s a good chance we see another low-scoring affair.  

Players to Watch 

Expect Baltimore to move on the basepaths. The Orioles know that against Fried, one run might be all they get, so they’ve got to manufacture runs as best as they can. Baltimore will run all day long, stealing 35 bases this season to rank only behind Pittsburgh and Cleveland in that department. Cedric Mullins has 11 of those thefts, and the center fielder has the speed needed to start a Baltimore rally with a well-timed stolen base. 

With Ronald Acuna likely out for this series after hitting a pitch off his knee on Thursday, Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson represent the most likely possibilities for an Atlanta home run. Both hitters have nine on the season, and Olson just homered in his most recent game against Miami. Taking him to homer at +280 offers solid value. 

The Pick 

Atlanta has a huge pitching edge here and can put up a lot of runs in a hurry. Those combined likely mean a fairly comfortable result for the Braves. The Orioles haven’t gotten good starting pitching all season, and that doesn’t work when you face Atlanta and Fried. Baltimore’s likely to struggle to get more than a run or two in this one. 

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