AT&T Byron Nelson Expert PGA Outright Picks
AT&T BYRON NELSON EXPERT PGA OUTRIGHT PICKS – The Clubhouse Picks crew is still licking their wounds after not having Wyndham Clark for his first PGA Tour victory last week at Quail Hollow. We’d been talking about him quite a bit in this column and in the podcast. And, just as we abandoned ship on our guy, he goes ahead and cashes a monster long shot.
We feel like we’re on the right track and building towards some real momentum as we get into the heart of the season with three majors remaining, including the PGA Championship next week.
As for this week, the Tour is headed to McKinney, Texas just outside Dallas for the AT&T Byron Nelson. It’s a bit of a tuneup type course that won’t provide much of a scoring challenge. If you love birdies, this is your week to watch. Be sure to head over to my column for a full course preview if you want more details.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings, May 10, 2023
The Driver (K.H. Lee)
These are the guys who are at the top of the leaderboard, usually at +2000 or better. They are the favorites for a reason, and though we don’t always bet them, these are our favorite bets from the top of the board.
K.H. Lee (+2500)
His odds keep drifting up and I can’t understand it. All this man has done in the last two years and eight rounds here is shoot -51, winning both times. K.H. Lee should be paying the property tax at TPC Craig Ranch because he flat out owns it.
I can’t get behind some of the guys with odds in the teens in this field, and I definitely can’t bet on Scottie Scheffler at +360 in a shootout the week before a major.
Jack and I are unanimous in liking our man, K.H. Lee. If you want a little bit more evidence beyond his dominance at this event since it moved to TPC Craig Ranch, he finished T-8 at Quail Hollow, which doesn’t look like a course that should suit him as much on the surface. The ball-striking numbers are good right now, and he’s peaking for what may as well be his own personal major.
He’s seeking to be the first player in almost 100 years to win his first three PGA Tour events at the same event in consecutive years.
The Irons (Stephan Jaeger, Seamus Power)
Our reliable players. You can usually find these heroes in the 20/1-80/1 range. They’re reliable and often a good bet for top-5, top-10, or top-20 props if you’re not feeling especially frisky.
Stephan Jaeger (+4000)
All right, he may not be the most reliable, but in 17 events so far this year, he’s only missed three cuts.
This is mostly a play based on his recent tee-to-green game which has been spectacular as of late. He gained almost ten stokes to the field tee-to-green at Quail Hollow and he’s 13th this season in GIR.
The putter has been a huge liability, so this is a little bit of a faith-based bet that he can’t stay cold forever.
This is going to be a shootout and guys will have to make birdies. If I can’t predict who will have a hot putter this week, I can at least grab one of the guys in the field who is going to give himself the most chances from tee-to-green.
The Wedges (Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Taylor Montgomery)
We bet on these guys all the time and they never seem to actually win. Nevertheless, we’re enamored with what the bring to the table and will ride with them for as long as it takes.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6000)
I have a tendency to fall in love with guys that do one thing particularly well. Often I love a guy who wields a nasty flagstick, is a magician around the greens, or is a tremendous iron player (read: Hoge, Tom).
This week I’m targeting one of my favorite short games on Tour. He’s good around the greens and he’s tremendous when he’s on them. The problem is he isn’t very long off the tee and his approach game often leaves something to be desired. These types of players can win on Tour, but it take a particular kind of course.
TPC Craig Ranch is one of the easiest second-shot courses on Tour, so the typical struggles with approach shouldn’t hurt him much. If he can get hot on the greens, look out.
The putter has been solid (as usual) of late and in his only other appearance here he notched a top-15 finish.
The course seems to suit him just fine, so maybe he can sneak up towards the top of the leaderboard this week for his first win.
The Putter (Min Woo Lee, Patton Kizzire Top-20)
Bet regret. We fired off these bets in the heat of the moment, then we pondered them a little while longer. Now we’re wondering if that money would’ve been better spent on literally anything else.
Patton Kizzire Top-20 +450
Jack cannot quit some guys on Tour, and Patton Kizzire is one of them (also, Harris English). Every once in a while, Kizzire pops up with a really solid result. He’s typically a strong putter who struggles from tee-to-green. His best results tend to come on shorter courses or courses that mask his ball striking deficiencies.
Wide fairways and easy-to-hit greens should be beneficial for Kizzire. The bad news is that he’s missed two cuts in a row and hasn’t notched a top-20 finish since mid-March at the Valspar. He was especially terrible at Quail Hollow last week where he lost nearly four strokes off-the-tee en route to a missed cut.
Jack is loyal to his guys, though. And Patton Kizzire is certainly one of them. This bet is pure emotion, so don’t look to hard into the numbers to try and justify it.
The Hybrid (Michael Kim, Greyson Sigg)
This is our fun long shot that could make us all rich. Or not. It’s tough to hit these, but it’s a damn good time sweating them if they’re in contention. Tread lightly on these guys, but sometimes miracles happen.
Michael Kim (+5500)
He’s been an extremely trendy pick this week, and it’s pretty clear to see why. This is another guy who will make all of golf Twitter rich if he wins because it seems like everybody is on him.
His game seems to be rounding into form at a good time as he essentially plays a home game this week in the Dallas-area. He finished 7th last week at Quail Hollow while having his best ball-striking week of the season. He gained strokes in all four major categories last week which should bode well for him here if his game followed him back to Texas.
He’s got a career victory in a shootout at the John Deere in 2018, so he can definitely win this type of event.
Ultimately, he’s one of the good guys out there who has busted his butt to get back on the PGA Tour, and he’s poised to take advantage of his recent run to lock up some future status with a win. He’s also a phenomenal Twitter follow if you just want a look at an everyman Tour player.