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AT&T Bryon Nelson PGA Tournament Preview

AT&T Bryon Nelson PGA Tournament Preview

AT&T BYRON NELSON PGA TOURNAMENT PREVIEW – We’ve been sick to our stomach all week because we weren’t on Wyndham Clark last week when he broke through last week at Quail Hollow. In retrospect, it was a good course fit (strong off the tee with a rapidly improving approach game), and after touting him all season, we simply blew it there.

On to the next, as they say, and the tune up before next week’s major is being held in McKinney, Texas at TPC Craig Ranch. Scottie Scheffler is headlining a relatively weak field, which is something that is becoming more common in major tune-ups and non-designated events.

The other major storyline is K.H. Lee coming back to defend his title for a second time after winning the first two iterations of this tournament at TPC Craig Ranch. He would be the second person in the last century to notch their first three victories at the same venue consecutively.

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The Course

TPC Craig Ranch is sort of being scoffed at by a lot of golf writers and analysts because it isn’t a course with a ton of distinct characteristics. It also isn’t a course that puts up much of a fight for Tour players. In the two tournaments played here the winning score has been -25 and -26, so it’s fair to speculate that this track probably won’t be hosting a U.S. Open any time soon.

The one change to the course comes in the form of converting a short par-5 12th hole into a pretty beefy par-4, turning the overall par from a 72 to 71.

Measuring at 7,400 or so yards, it’s long, but shorter hitters tend to play well here, too. K.H. Lee isn’t really a bomber by any measure, but he’s dominated here while being more or less average in length off the tee.

Wide fairways and easy to find greens will likely turn this thing into a shootout once again this year unless the weather fouls things up. There are storms forecasted for the weekend, so we could see some delays and potentially a little bit of wind.

Without a ton of defenses on the course, expect guys to have the foot on the gas pretty much all the time here.


The Field

This field is relatively weak outside of the first handful of names towards the top of the odds board and the prices reflect that. Scottie Scheffler is in Dallas for a hometown tune-up before the PGA Championship and he is priced at a hilariously low +360. Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day, and Tom Kim are the only other golfers listed below 20/1.

Defending champ for the second year in a row, K.H. Lee is listed at 25/1 which is a pretty big price for a guy who is playing well this year and may be the only person in the world of professional golf who loves this course.


Putting it all together

On a course this easy, there aren’t a lot of massively important stats to cling to as most deficiencies can be masked on easier tracks. Obviously, guys are going to need to go low to win here. Solid SG:App numbers can make going low easier simply because good iron players are going to have a lot more reasonable looks.

There haven’t been many tournaments this season on bentgrass this season, but you can definitely take a look at guys who perform well on the surface historically. Often, these events turn in to putting contests. If you’re struggling to find those stats, go check out our friends of the pod at WeKnowFantasy.

Lastly, par-breaker stats that combine birdies and eagles will be a factor. You’re going to want to target guys who can go low in a hurry.

Be sure to read more of my golf breakdowns and NASCAR picks here


  • Nate Perry, Senior Analyst #NoPickNate

    Nate Perry is a career college educator and literary writer who tends bar to get the inside scoop on sports. He makes his living in hardscrabble downtown Reno, Nevada. A sports handicapper by trade, Nate is legendary at the sportsbook in Reno. If you can gamble on it, chances are Nate has tried his hand at it. He's a former fiction writer who has turned to writing about sports in a desperate bid to get published, much to the chagrin of nearly everyone around him. He is featured here with his extremely large dog, Boatswain.

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