Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Expert Pick – December 31, 2023

ATLANTA FALCONS VS. CHICAGO BEARS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 31, 2023 – Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of my games of the week features the Atlanta Falcons (7-8 SU, 5-10 ATS) traveling to Solider Field to take on the Chicago Bears (6-9 SU, 7-7-1 ATS). The Falcons do not control their destiny, even if they win their last two games. Although the Bears’ recent success has been impressive, they are on the outside looking in as well in terms of qualifying for the postseason.

Without further delay, let us look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, December 31, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago

TV: CBS

Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Will The Falcons’ Defense Have Another Solid Outing Against A Surging Bears Squad?

The Falcons come into his matchup with two losses in their last three decisions. Following a pair of losses against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta bounced back with a 29-10 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16.

Taylor Heinicke completed 23 of 33 passes for 229 yards and one touchdown. Bijan Robinson led the Falcons’ ground game with 72 yards on 12 carries. He also caught seven passes totaling 50 yards. Defensively, Atlanta held Indianapolis to 262 total yards and recorded six sacks. The Falcons will need to duplicate their effort against Chicago to keep their faint postseason hopes alive.

Bears Offensive Stats                                       Bears Defensive Stats
Scoring: 20.9 PPG – 21st                                      Points Allowed: 23.0 PPG – 21st
Total Yards: 342.5 YPG – 20th                            Yards Allowed: 318.1 YPG — 12th
Passing: 202.5 YPG – 29th                                   Passing Yards Allowed: 237.5 YPG — 25th
Rushing: 142.1 YPG – 2nd                                    Rushing Yards Allowed: 80.7 YPG – 1st

Can The Bears Push Their Home Winning Streak To Five Games?

Meanwhile, the Bears enter this matchup with four victories across their last six outings. Not too shabby for a team that started the season with four straight losses and dropped seven of its first nine games. In its Week 16 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, Chicago jumped out to a 21-0 lead before holding on for a 27-16 victory.

Justin Fields did not put up jaw-dropping numbers through the air, as he finished 15-of-27 for 170 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. However, he did tack on 97 rushing yards on nine attempts.

Khalil Herbert led Chicago’s ground attack with a season-high 112 yards on 20 carries along with one touchdown. One week after being held to just 88 rushing yards, the Bears put up 250 yards against Arizona. Cole Kmet caught four passes for a career-best 107 yards but missed the entire second half with a knee injury.

Kmet has been listed as questionable after being limited in the team’s practice on Friday. Darnell Mooney has been ruled out of the game against the Falcons due to being in the league’s concussion protocol.

With that in mind, the Bears will need a big game from DJ Moore, who was hampered with an ankle injury against the Cardinals. Along with that, Chicago needs another solid outing on the ground against a Falcons’ defense that has allowed only two rushing touchdowns in their last six games.

Next up, a look at some noteworthy betting trends for both teams.

The Picks

The Spread

The Bears opened as a consensus 2.5-point favorite. At the time of the writing, the line has not changed. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the home team to cover is the safe bet.

• The Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
• Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against Chicago.
• The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against the Bears.
• Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against NFC teams.
• The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings.
• Chicago is 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups against NFC opponents.

Prediction: Chicago Bears (-2)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 37.5 points. The line has moved slightly to 38 points. This seems a bit low, right? Although these two teams are averaging a combined 40 points per contest this season, here is why you should go with the “under” here.

• The UNDER total has hit four times in the Falcons’ last five games.
• The total has gone UNDER eight times in Atlanta’s last nine December outings.
• The UNDER total has prevailed six times in the Bears’ last eight contests.
• The UNDER total has won nine times in the Bears’ last 12 games.
• In Chicago’s last nine Week 17 games, the total has gone UNDER six times.

Prediction: UNDER 38 points

Player Prop Bets

My key player to watch for the Falcons is rookie running back, Bijan Robinson. He currently has -115 odds of rushing for more than 46.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 46.5 yards. Here is a glimpse at how his season numbers stack up against the projected rushing yards total for this matchup.

• This season, Robinson has accumulated 873 yards over 12 outings. That averages out to 72.8 yards per outing.
• In seven road contests, Robinson is averaging 51.7 YPG.
• During December – a sample size of four games – Robinson’s yards-per-game average is just 42.5.
• Robinson has played against NFC teams 10 times this season. He is averaging 53.5 YPG in those contests.
• In three matchups against NFC-North opponents, Robinson is averaging 69.3 YPG.

Prediction: Bijan Robinson OVER 46.5 rushing yards

My key player to watch for Chicago is DJ Moore. He currently has -115 odds of totaling more than 65.5 receiving yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 65.5 receiving yards. Here is how Moore’s numbers compare to the projected receiving yards total for this matchup.

• During the season, Moore has amassed 1,141 yards in 15 outings. That averages out to 76.1 yards per outing.
• While Moore averages 92 receiving yards per game on the road, that average drops off dramatically to 57.9 yards per outing in seven home games.
• Moore has played against NFC-South opponents three times this season. He is averaging is averaging 68.7 YPG in those matchups.
• In 10 matchups against NFC teams, Moore is averaging 80.8 YPG.

Based on how well Moore has performed against NFC and NFC-South opponents this season, going with the “OVER” for Moore looks like a safe choice.

Prediction: DJ Moore OVER 65.5 receiving yards