Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces: Expert Pick – August 13, 2023
ATLANTA DREAM VS LAS VEGAS ACES EXPERT PICK – AUGUST 13, 2023 – Happy Sunday basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier look at the Liberty vs Fever, the next game we will preview is the Atlanta Dream (15-15) taking on the league’s top team – the Las Vegas Aces (26-3).
Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.
Tipoff
When: Sunday, August 13, 2023 at 9:00 PM ET
Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV: CBS Sports Network and BSSE
Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Table provided by editorial staff.
Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces – Season Trends
Dream in a nightmare slump
The Atlanta Dream come into this matchup having dropped seven of their last 10 contests. This includes a pair of losses against the Seattle Storm (68-67) and the Los Angeles Sparks (85-74).
In the loss to Los Angeles, Cheyenne Parker scored 17 points and grabbed seven rebounds. Rhyne Howard also tallied 17 points along with five boards.
However, they shot a combined 11-for-28 from the floor. And as a team, Atlanta shot 40 percent from the floor and a woeful 4-for-23 (17.4 percent) from 3-point range.
Here is a look at how Atlanta ranks across multiple categories.
- Scoring offense: 83.1 points per game (5th)
- Offense efficiency: 100.9 points per 100 possessions (8th)
- Scoring defense: 84.1 points per game (9th)
- Defense efficiency: 102.1 points per 100 possessions (4th)
- Opponent shooting: 42.3 percent (2nd)
- Opponent 3PT shooting: 33 percent (3rd)
As I mentioned yesterday, it is somewhat surprising that Atlanta is just a .500 ball club.
A’ja Wilson still the MVP for Aces
Meanwhile, the defending champs have won nine of their last 10 games. This includes a recent 113-89 win over the Washington Mystics on Friday. A’ja Wilson scored a game-high of 40 points (on 17-for-25 shooting) and grabbed 12 rebounds. Wilson became just the eighth player in WNBA history to have 40 points and 10 rebounds.
The Aces are as good as it gets from a numbers standpoint. They have the top-scoring offense and efficiency in the association. Their second-ranked scoring defense is only allowing 80.2 points per contest and they have the best defensive rating in the league as well (98.9 points per 100 possessions).
As if those stats weren’t impressive enough, Las Vegas also leads the league in overall shooting (49.9 percent) and three-point shooting (39.1 percent). And this team has the best point differential in the league (+14.1). Simply put, this team checks all the boxes.
The Picks
The Spread
The defending champs open as a 16.5-point favorite in this matchup. And despite the large spread, here are some trends that suggest why backing the Aces is the appropriate choice.
- Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in the last five times they have played on back-to-back nights and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
- The Dream are 0-4 ATS against teams that have an overall winning record and they are 0-for-5 ATS in their last five road games.
- Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in the last 16 games they have played in Las Vegas.
- The Aces are 5-0 ATS in the last five instances in which they have played on one day of rest.
- Las Vegas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
Words cannot describe how uncomfortable this large spread makes me feel. But I’m riding with the number on this one.
Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)
Over/Under
The projected O/U points total for this contest is 175.5. Here is a look at why you may want to go with the over.
- The Dream and Aces have exceeded the projected points totals in two of their last three meetings.
- The OVER is 4-1 for Las Vegas the last five times the team played on one day of rest.
- The OVER is 8-3 for the Aces overall and in their last 11 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- In the Aces’ last seven games, the OVER has cashed in five times (5-2).
Prediction: OVER 175.5 points
Player Prop Bet
My player to watch in this contest is Las Vegas Aces forward A’ja Wilson. She currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 21.5 and -105 odds of scoring less than 21.5 points.
Wilson is averaging 21.2 points per contest, which is comparable to the projected total in this contest.
Additionally, Wilson has scored 20 or more points in seven of her last 10 outings, including the 40-point outburst against the Washington Mystics, and she is averaging 24.6 points per contest during that stretch.
Prediction: A’ja Wilson OVER 21.5 points
James’s Picks
- Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)
- OVER 175.5 points
- PPB: A’ja Wilson OVER 21.5 points
