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Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA Expert Picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA Expert Picks

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL PGA EXPERT PICKS - Well, we’ve previewed the venues, podcasted about guys we like, and now it is time to settle in and dive into a couple of guys I like to play well this week.

Be sure to listen to our full breakdown with more insights on guys like Tyrrell Hatton, but for this little column, I’m going to dive in on some guys who I didn’t get as much time to expound on in the pod.

Get ready for some longshot love.

Keith Mitchell (+5000)

My man, Keith, is getting no love from bettors and his odds have actually gone up from 40/1 to 50/1 in the time between recording our podcast and writing this article.

I don’t see it. 

He’s first in total driving which combines the traditional distance and accuracy stats for driving, and he’s 5th in SG: Off the Tee. 

I refuse to believe that driving the ball will not be important on the windy brute that is Bay Hill.

If we look further for a sneaky stat, he’s 3rd in proximity out of the rough from 175-200 yards. These guys are going to have some long approaches this week and I want that type of iron play from someone I’m betting on. 

He likes the venue having posted two top-10s in this event. Oh, and he’s hotter than a brushfire right now with two top-5s in February. 

At 50/1, I love him.

Adrian Meronk (+15000)

The Pride of Poland might not be a guy you’re familiar with unless you’re spending your mornings grinding on the DP World Tour. He’s had a couple starts in the US after some good results in the MIddle East to start the year though.

The T-14 that he posted last week at the Honda is what is getting my attention. The ball striking numbers have been good this year. He’s gained strokes on approach and off the tee in almost every event this year. He lost .03 strokes off the tee at the Honda, but I’m not putting too much stock into an outlier performance that left him at basically average off the tee.

I think he’s improving and if the putter can get tidied up a little, he’s going to find himself in good shape. 

Lucas Herbert (+18000)

Now we’re heading into some deep waters fishing for longshots, but let me walk you through this. 

I won’t sugarcoat this, he hasn’t been wonderful this season on the PGA Tour. He’s made all four cuts this year, but the end results haven’t been very pretty for him as he’s finished outside of the top-50 in his last three starts. 

Before a couple of lackluster PGA starts, he was red hot on the DP World Tour with two 3rd place finishes in January, though. 

My sense is that he might just not be a guy who plays his best on the West Coast. I’m willing to bank on those good finishes across the pond being more indicative of where his game is at. 

The short game is always elite with Herbert and he excels in basically any scrambling or putting stat you can find.

The difference maker for me is that he’s been gaining strokes off the tee. What’s holding him back are some of the numbers relating to his approach play.

At this price, guys are always going to have some warts, but I’ll roll the dice with a player who is strong off the tee and brings an elite short game to Bay Hill.


Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 1st, 2023

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