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ACC Championship Expert Pick and Prediction – December 2, 2023

ACC Championship Expert Pick and Prediction – December 2, 2023

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – DECEMBER 2, 2023 – No team needs to make a statement more than Florida State. Even though the Seminoles haven’t lost a game, the people who believe that the committee’s job is to select the four best teams regardless of record aren’t interested in Florida State. Without Jordan Travis, their stance is that the Seminoles don’t belong.

This is FSU’s chance to prove otherwise. The Seminoles escaped against Florida in Tate Rodemaker’s first full game, and now they face a Louisville team that’s coming off a stunning rivalry loss. The Cardinals have been surviving all season, but they couldn’t survive three turnovers against Kentucky, which opened the door for the Wildcats to knock them off yet again.

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That’s taken the bloom off the rose for Louisville, which is playing for an Orange Bowl bid. Truth be told, the Cardinals might end up in the Orange win or lose as the highest-ranked ACC team outside the playoff, but they’d rather earn it as the ACC champion. There’s also the fact that if the Cardinals lose, it might not be enough for the Seminoles to stay ahead of Texas and Alabama. Florida State has to leave no doubt by smashing Louisville, which places the pressure firmly on Mike Norvell’s squad.

The Odds

Matchup

Open

Spread

Points

Moneyline

Louisville

(10-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

O53.5

+2.5

O47.5

+120

Florida State

(12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS)

-2.5

-2.5

U47.5

-142

Kickoff

When: Saturday, December 2nd at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

TV: ABC

Public Bets: 52% on Florida State

Public Money: 76% on Louisville

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of November 29th, 2023

Louisville vs. Florida State In-Season Trends

Louisville has been an over team as of late because the Cardinals’ defense seems to be running out of steam. Both Miami and Virginia topped 300 yards of offense, and Kentucky hit the over because Louisville turned the ball over three times to set the Wildcats up with short fields. For the most part, the Cardinals’ defense has been the team’s strongest point, but they’ve been very inconsistent over the course of the season.

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Florida State’s defense has been more consistent and has held eight straight opponents to 20 points or less. The Seminoles hit the under in half of those games, including three of their past four. Even with Travis on the field, the Seminoles still didn’t do much scoring in November. In their three games against FBS teams, Florida State never scored more than 27 points.

The Difference-Makers

Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer turned the ball over three times last week in a loss to Kentucky. (Photo by John David Mercer/USA Today)

Jack Plummer has to avoid turning the ball over if Louisville is going to win. Jawhar Jordan is going to find the going rough against the FSU defense, so Plummer’s going to have to do his part to open up what the Seminoles are willing to give. With 11 picks to his name, Plummer gives teams far too many short fields, which could be the Seminoles’ biggest path to offense.

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Trey Benson almost single-handedly lifted the Seminoles past Florida with three touchdowns on the ground, but Louisville’s run defense is its biggest strength. The Cardinals also have done the job well against the pass for most of the season, which says Rodemaker might struggle. This seems to be a case where the quarterback who does the least to harm his team will emerge victorious.

Weather

The good news is that the temperatures should be fairly agreeable with the weather in the mid to low 60s. The bad news is that about half an inch of rain will fall between Friday and Saturday in Charlotte, which could turn the grass into a marshfield.

The Pick

The defenses are ahead of the offenses here, and neither team is likely to put up huge numbers. Florida State has to try to do so, but the Seminoles are really in no position to do that without Travis.

Picking the under is dangerous given Louisville’s recent struggles, but the way the offenses for both teams have looked lately makes the under the likely play. Florida State should be able to survive, but it’s not likely to impress anyone even though it should cover the small spread.

Dan’s Picks

 Florida State -2.5

 Under 47.5

 

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