2023 NFL Divisional Round Expert Prop Picks
2023 DIVISIONAL ROUND EXPERT PROP PICKS – Wild Card weekend offered plenty of value for the savvy prop player. I went 1-1 on props in the Saturday games last week and then grew so entranced with Jaguars upset victory that I forget to make some picks for Sunday slate.
Never fear. This week I’m handing our my prop picks for all the games a full two days ahead of kickoff because my neighbors decided to begin running the chainsaw at 9:00 pm and now I can’t sleep.
We should see plenty of action from our favorite football ne’er-do-wells like Trevor Lawrence and Chris Jones and Danny Dimes. Hopefully, by the time I finish writing this piece, my neighbors will be done cutting down trees in the middle of the night and I can go to bed.
Let’s get a look at my four best prop picks for 2023 NFL Divisional round.
All odds brought to you by DraftKings as of January 19, 2023.
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Trevor Lawrence UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (+120)
Lawrence’s paltry performance last week provides great value on the UNDER for his interceptions. Since Week 9, Lawrnece has thrown 2 interceptions before his masterclass in picks during the first half of the Wild Card game.
Lawrence has done a great job taking care of the ball against some very good defensive teams. He threw 1 interception against the Cowboys in Week 15 and one against the Texas in Week 17. That’s been it in the second half of the season.
He did make some bonehead mistakes against the Chargers last week, but two of those interceptions came down to bad luck.
Lawrence has avoided the bad decision as of late and there’s no reason to think he can’t protect the ball against the Chiefs this Saturday.
According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs currently rank 20th in DVOA against the pass. They can use Chris Jones to create some pressure, but the secondary doesn’t often force many mistakes. Lawrence threw 0 interceptions against Kansas City in a matchup earlier this season.
This line is overvalued based on Lawrence’s performance last week. Grab this UNDER and root for the Jags.
UPDATE: Trevor Lawrence has two interceptions in five minutes of play. https://t.co/sV1HBWwXdT
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) January 15, 2023
Chris Jones OVER 0.75 Sacks (+120)
Chris Jones has been a force on the defensive line for the Kansas City Chiefs. He uses his quickness to slide past flat-footed lineman and blow up plays in the backfield.
PFF ranks Jones 2nd among all interior defensive lineman. He’s recorded 15 sacks this year (the most among DI’s) and his ability to create pressure will be a major component of the Chiefs’ defensive scheme.
Lawrence has struggled to avoid the sack this season. There is no better example of Lawrence’s issues than when Jacksonville played the Chiefs earlier this season and took 5 sacks in the loss.
The Jaguars can be susceptible to pressure, but are fairly reliable in pass protection. Sacks are usually more the quarterback’s fault than the offensive line and T-Law has been getting the ball out quicker.
The Jags’ quarterback is 12th in allowing quarterback pressure this season. The offensive line is 9th in pass block efficiency, but they are missing some major pieces on the line and two of their staters were limited in practice.
This will need to be a focus if the Jags want to win. Trevor Lawrence is 2-5 SU when taking multiple sacks this season. Chris Jones recorded 2 sacks against the Jags earlier this year. Look for him to eat.
Chris Jones on his playoff sack drought: “I’ma make sure I get one this go-round, just to shut you guys up.” pic.twitter.com/B36Q1DK1WT
— Sports Radio 810 WHB (@SportsRadio810) January 19, 2023
Daniel Jones UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Daniel Jones ran all over the Vikings’ stuttering defense last week en route to a win. He tucked it 17 times for 78 yards. In the last two weeks that Jones has played, he’s rushed for a combined 167 yards.
The Giants scheme their offensive in order to utilize Jones’ wheels. They create a lot of space down the sidelines for Jones to dip out of the pocket and run for 40 yards. If you’ve ever watched him play, you know Jones gets to the sideline quickly and then moves up field in open space. This is a big part of the Giants’ offense and one of the reasons they had so much success in the Wild Card round.
The Eagles defense is not an analog for the Vikings. Quite the opposite. The Eagles have one of the best defensive units in the league. Their edge rushers use their quickness to make tackles in open space. They don’t give up much on the ground.
The last time the Giants faced Philly, Jones ran for 26 yards and didn’t come close to hitting the UNDER. Jones also struggled against the Cowboys elite defensive line, rushing for 14 yards on Thanksgiving Day.
It should be noted that Jones tore up the Eagles for 96 rushing yards the first time these two teams faced. Most of that came from a monster run early in the game.
The line for Jones’ rushing has hovered around 30-35 yards so I’m interested to see it at 44.5 for the Divisional Round. Jones’ success these last few weeks has pumped up the line and it’s time we grab the value pick and cash a ticket.
Daniel Jones ran for 7 first downs vs Vikings in wild card playoff game. Tall task for Eagles in divisional round. Jones finished regular season with 708 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns.#NFL #NFLFootball #NFLPlayoffs #NFLFantasy #Giants #NewYork #NY #Philadelphia pic.twitter.com/gFxbcPI7ut
— NFL Study (@NFLStudy) January 17, 2023
Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (+130)
Ja’Marr Chase is an alien sent here to burn up cornerbacks and get in the end zone. According to Football Outsiders, Chase is ranked 20th in DYAR and 13th in EYds this season.
If we include the Wild Card game against the Ravens, Chase currently has 10 touchdowns on the year. Eight of those touchdowns have come since Week 12. Chase is undoubtedly Burrow’s favorite weapon on the field and he is used often in the red zone.
It’s no secret that the Bills have been struggling on defense. They are much better against the run, where the Bills rank 3rd in DVOA. Buffalo ranks 9th in DVOA against the pass, but the team has not passed the eye test in quite some time. Teams are able to get chunk yardage against the defense and move the ball quickly downfield.
Look for Chase to exploit some mismatches against the Bills. He should be targeted enough in the red zone to come down with an anytime touchdown.
Normally, I’m not a fan of these anytime touchdown props, because the juice is weak when one considers how improbable it is that one of these guys will actually score a touchdown.
However, Chase is on a roll and is finding the end zone. Take the easy play here and don’t over think it.
JAMAR CHASE WITH THE TD!! Bengals up 10-0 #WhoDey pic.twitter.com/ediAeobdgW
— Highlight Report (@JonathanDincher) January 16, 2023
Bonus Prop: My Neighbors Will Stop Running the Chainsaw OVER 11:00 pm.
I guess I’ll be up for a while.
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