UFC Vegas 75 Main Event Prop Bets – Top three picks
UFC VEGAS 75 MAIN EVENT PROP BETS – TOP THREE PICKS – Saturday evening promises to be a Vegas bust up for the ages, as Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier headline a 14-fight card. Side by side in the UFC’s middleweight rankings, both men have the title firmly in their sights.
Currently ranked third in the middleweight division, ‘Italian Dream’ Vettori will enter this battle following a victory over Roman Dolidze in March. He remains active, and has a 19-6-1 record as a professional. Since 2020, his record is 5-2, with his losses coming against Israel Adesanya (C) and Robert Whittaker (#2).
That higher-ranked duo also account for Jared Cannonier’s only defeats (in a 6-2 record) since moving to middleweight. Overall, the ‘Killa Gorilla’ is 16-6, with his last fight resulting in a decision win over Sean Strickland in December:
Vettori to Win by Decision +130
Vettori and Cannonier are in really similar positions in their careers, and they also have similar fighting styles. This undoubtedly provides the reasoning behind some narrow margins in current Vettori vs Cannonier UFC odds markets.
Cannonier is a former heavyweight who has worked his way down two weight classes and transformed his game. He still has the same power but has become an excellent technician, as shown in his last fight. He landed 141 significant strikes against Strickland and controlled the octagon well.
Unfortunately for him, Vettori fights in the same manner. In turn, whoever controls the octagon and cuts off angles better in this fight will likely be victorious. Vettori will hold a one-inch height advantage but gives up three inches in reach. Meanwhile, Cannonier will likely be physically stronger as a former heavyweight.
All that said, Vettori will still control the octagon and be a technician. Only two of his professional wins have come via knockout, both prior to entering the UFC. He has two submissions in the UFC, but this fight likely will not hit the mat. Vettori has the better-grappling statistics (lands 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes) and can stuff any Cannonier attempts.
Both men have been in three or more five-round bouts and have no problems going the distance. It is hard to picture a fight where Vettori gets a knockout or submission while Cannonier has a chance to get a finish, even though Vettori has never been knocked out. Vettori is most likely the right side, and is probably worth a money-line play in any UFC Vegas 75 Main Event prop bets, given that this fight remains near even.
Vettori to Win by Unanimous Decision +165
When Marvin Vettori controls and dominates a fight, it always looks the same, and he keeps a tremendous pace with a heavy kickboxing style. The only people to have given him trouble so far are elite kickboxers Whittaker and Adesanya, with Whittaker mixing in takedowns alongside his deadly strikes.
As noted on Thursday, Cannonier has more power in his big shots, but he will not land more volume on Vettori. The biggest thing Vettori needs to do is utilize his kicks and not have a boxing match. He also needs to keep Cannonier guessing as to what he is throwing. The odds make sense for this fight, and there is some value in Vettori’s decision props even though they are favored.
Cannonier to win by knockout is listed at +275, while his decision prop is at +300. It will take a herculean effort to knock out Vettori, but Cannonier can definitely walk away with a decision victory.
It’s a brave call compared to the other two picks, but anything can happen in this sport, whether it is the judges or a fighter not feeling his best on fight night.
If Cannonier wins this fight, it likely comes as a split decision, because Vettori will have success at some point. It is hard to imagine this fight not going the distance, so this prop has a value at this price.
When does the event start?
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN2 this Saturday, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. on ESPN. Be sure to check out the latest UFC Vegas 75 Main Event Prop Bets on Draftkings to keep an eye on any price changes.