Solving the Big 12 Tiebreaker Scenarios
SOLVING THE BIG 12 TIEBREAKER SCENARIOS – This is why you don’t eliminate divisions. Or if you do, you make sure the schedules are at least somewhat uniform.
The Big 12 still has half the conference alive for its two spots in the conference title game in Arlington, and you might need to be a math major to understand who might make it and what needs to happen. Or, you need to be someone like me who has way too much time on his hands.
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As we head into rivalry week (well, somewhat; the Big 12 is honestly pretty terrible at preserving its rivalries outside of the Territorial Cup), we have a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12. Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado are all sitting at 6-2 in the league. If at least two of them win this week, which they should, things are relatively metastable.
If three of them lose, however, things go from metastable to chaos. If all four lose…good luck. Here we go.
Scenario No. 1: Simple and Easy
Arizona State has by far the simplest path to the Big 12 title game. If the Sun Devils beat 2-6 Arizona, nothing else matters to them. They’d be in the Big 12 title game, as they’d be 7-2 and would win any tiebreaker with the other three. That’s because ASU beat BYU and Kansas State. BYU loses the head-to-head, and Colorado lost to Kansas State and loses the common opponents tiebreaker. The Sun Devils would also finish ahead of Iowa State because their win over BYU beats anything Iowa State can claim (the teams didn’t play and split the common opponents tiebreaker because Arizona State beat Kansas and lost to Cincinnati and Iowa State beat Cincinnati and lost to Kansas).
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Iowa State’s path is also straightforward, but much more difficult. The Cyclones have to take down inconsistent Kansas State to qualify. Doing so would ensure they advance on tiebreakers, as Colorado would have a loss to K-State against Iowa State’s win and BYU loses on strength of schedule.
So if Arizona State and Iowa State both win, nothing else matters.
Scenario 2: Hairy, But Understandable
If one of the two loses, that’s when things start to get weird. But as long as BYU and Colorado take care of business, things won’t get too far out of control. For BYU to make it to Arlington, it must beat Houston and get help from Arizona and/or Kansas State. If the Cougars win and one or both of the Wildcats win as well, BYU is in the Big 12 title game.
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Colorado needs more help than that. The Buffaloes lose a tiebreaker to any of the other three, so they need either both Arizona and Kansas State to win or for one to win and BYU to lose. If any two of the teams in the tiebreaker with them lose, Colorado qualifies by beating last-place Oklahoma State.
Scenario No. 3: Powercat Uprising
Kansas State being key to this question is a double-edged sword for the top four. Win your game, and the Wildcats are your best allies. Lose, and they’re gunning to take your spot. But K-State’s situation is complicated because of who it lost to, as it carries losses to Arizona State and BYU. As such, Kansas State can’t have a scenario where it’s tied with both the Sun Devils and the Cougars. It needs one of them to win, or it needs to have more teams brought into the tiebreaker.
Luckily for the Wildcats, the winner of West Virginia-Texas Tech would automatically be brought into the tiebreaker. And that would be enough to lift the Wildcats into the league title game if they get help elsewhere. For Kansas State to make it, the Wildcats would need to beat Iowa State and then have two of Arizona State, BYU and Colorado lose. Realistically, the best case for the Wildcats would be BYU and Colorado losing, because there is one scenario where BYU wins and Arizona State goes ahead of Kansas State anyway.
For that to happen, at least one of Kansas, West Virginia or TCU would need to win. In any of those cases, Arizona State’s win over K-State and its strength of victory tiebreaker would lift it over the Wildcats to face BYU again.
Scenario No. 4: Complete Chaotic Eight-Way Tie
Yes, there is a way where eight teams can tie for first place at 6-3. For this to occur, the following results would happen:
- Arizona State loses to Arizona
- Kansas State defeats Iowa State
- BYU loses to Houston
- Colorado loses to Oklahoma State
- Baylor defeats Kansas
- TCU defeats Cincinnati
This would create a seven-way tie, with the winner of West Virginia-Texas Tech being brought into the tiebreaker as the eighth team. However, fans in Waco, Morgantown, Lubbock and Fort Worth shouldn’t get too excited: there’s no scenario to lift any of those four teams into the championship game.
In this scenario of complete chaos, Kansas State’s strength of victory and Arizona State’s wins over common opponents would set a matchup of Wildcats vs. Sun Devils for the Big 12 title and the College Football Playoff spot. In any case, the winner is likely to get the No. 12 seed…which probably means a trip to either South Bend, Indiana, Columbus, Ohio or Eugene, Oregon.
