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North Carolina vs. Duke Expert Pick and Prediction – February 1, 2025

North Carolina vs. Duke Expert Pick and Prediction – February 1, 2025

NORTH CAROLINA VS. DUKE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 1, 2025 — College basketball’s most hyped rivalry again takes center stage, but this one could be in serious danger of not delivering.

First, there’s the historical pattern. So far, Hubert Davis and Jon Scheyer have split their four meetings in this rivalry. Last year, Davis got the better of Scheyer twice, evening the score after Scheyer swept in his first year. Over the past 10 meetings, neither team has a winning streak longer than two games.

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The second reason is the more concerning: North Carolina really isn’t playing well right now. Not only have the Tar Heels lost three of four, but those weren’t even good losses. Losing to Pittsburgh and Wake Forest away is one thing, but the Heels took a Quad 2 home loss to Stanford and nearly took what would have been a Quad 4 loss at home to Boston College.

Carolina escaped that game in overtime, but that’s the only win over the past four. And Duke isn’t playing that well itself, despite its lofty ranking. The Blue Devils keep running away with the ACC, but that seems to be more of the league’s weakness than Duke’s strength. Duke does have a win over Auburn, showing its potential to be a national title team, but the Blue Devils are far too inconsistent. Wins over Wake Forest and N.C. State were unconvincing; Duke needs to make a statement here.

The Odds

Matchup Open Spread Points Moneyline

North Carolina

(13-9 SU, 7-14-1 ATS) 

O148.5

+14

O148.5

+725

Duke

(18-2 SU, 12-8 ATS) 

-13.5

-14

U148.5

-1200

Tipoff

When: Saturday, February 1 at 6:30 p.m.

Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, N.C.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

North Carolina vs. Duke In-Season Trends

Who are these Tar Heels and what have they done with the previous run-heavy squads of Hubert Davis? Actually, the pace isn’t the problem for the Heels; it’s that they’re just not making 3-pointers. Carolina’s shooting is not that strong this season, which has led to the Heels being an under team. In eight of their past nine games, the under has cashed.

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Duke has gone back and forth between overs and unders. The pattern has the Blue Devils playing under after allowing State to stick close for the entire 40 minutes. Duke’s only losses for the year have come on a neutral court to Kentucky and Kansas, and the Blue Devils are riding a 14-game winning streak.

The Difference-Makers

Cooper Flagg has been doing it almost by himself as of late. The Blue Devil star has topped 20 points in three straight games, and is clearly a man among boys in the ACC. It’s anyone’s guess how long that will last as Duke faces tougher competition, but right now, he is essentially unchecked.

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R.J. Davis is in the same spot as Flagg for Carolina, but because he’s not quite on Flagg’s level, the results haven’t worked as well. He’s only sat for 11 minutes in the Heels’ past four games, and if he has a tough night or gets in foul trouble, Carolina has little chance.

The Pick

North Carolina seems to be spiraling at the wrong time. Davis doesn’t seem to have an answer, and the natives in Chapel Hill are getting restless. His ability to beat Duke and ruin Mike Krzyzewski’s final season earned him a lot of goodwill with the fans, but that’s starting to run out.

At some point, Davis has to put wins on the board this season. This doesn’t seem to be the time or place for that to happen.

Dan’s Picks  

 Duke -14

 Under 148.5

 

Author

  • Dan is originally from Virginia and has covered basketball games across the country over the past 18 years. He now resides in Indianapolis and loves a good defensive showcase. His Twitter @danangell11.

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