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NFL Week 16: Jaguars vs. Jets Prop Picks

Jaguars vs. Jets Prop Picks

JAGUARS VS. JETS PROP PICKS - The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) will travel to East Rutherford to face off against the New York Jets (7-7) in a rainy, low-total game.

The Jaguars have been surging these last few weeks, relying on high production from their young quarterback and offensive playmakers like Evan Engram to beat both the Titans and Cowboys.

The Jets boast one of the NFL's best defenses this season and should thrive in wet and cold conditions against a team that would prefer to pass. Mike White is still out for the Jets, so Zach Wilson will get another start under center. Wilson completed 18 passes on 37 attempts for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Jets 20-17 loss to the Lions.

As the season wears on, the lines for the NFL get very sharp. This is a game where a lot of bettors will hammer the under, which is why you've seen the number cratered to 37. If the spread makes you queasy, never fear. I've got some player props you can consider to maximize the action in Jersey.


When: Thursday, 7:00 pm ET, December 22nd, 2022

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

How to Watch: Amazon Prime

Public Bets: Jaguars, 67%

Public Money: Jaguars, 72%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of December 22nd, 2022

The Odds



















Jack's Best Prop Picks

Zach Wilson 

Despite a productive week against the Lions, Vegas clearly does no respect Wilson's ability. DraftKings has his total on pass yards set at 198.5 (-115) and the total on his pass completions is 17.5 (-110).

Those are low point totals and it's tempting to consider the over, especially since Jacksonville's pass defense is one of the weakest units in the league

Per Football Outsiders, the Jaguars are ranked dead last in Pass DVOA on defense (25%). Wilson threw for over 300 yards against the Lions, whose pass defense has gotten much better since their bye week. Detroit is currently ranked 22nd in Pass DOVA on defense (11%) and that number is even better if we control for games played after their bye week.

So why can't Wilson get any love?

Some of it is the weather. It should be nasty and cold in Jersey tonight, but the Jets don't have much of a running game to rely on. They're going to have to pass.

The weather, combined with Wilson's general bad attitude and track record of poor performances, does give me pause on some of these props. Event if Wilson is going up against a terrible pass defense, he may have trouble gripping the ball or the Jets may simply run it all game and rely on their defense to win a close one.

So where's the value? Interceptions.

Wilson is currently +155 to throw under 0.5 interceptions. He may struggle to complete passes, but he doesn't throw a lot of picks. Wilson has only thrown 4 this year and 3 of those came against the Patriots in an abysmal game. The Patriots have a real secondary, the Jaguars do not. The rain might make both quarterbacks miserable, but I don't think we'll see an interception from Wilson tonight.

Jack's Prop

Zach Wilson

Under 0.5 Interceptions (+155)

Evan Engram

The Jaguars big, game changing tight end, Evan Engram, has quickly become one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite options.

Engram has had two huge games in the last two weeks. He caught 11 passes on 15 targets for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Jaguars' statement win against the Titans. He followed that up with 8 reception on 10 targets for 62 yards against the Dallas Cowboys.

Engram has been targeted a total of 84 times this year. He's come down with 61 receptions (73%) for 610 yards. He's ranked 13th in catch rate among tight ends and 8th in EYds, which means he does a lot with his receptions and is more effective than traditional stats would indicate. The Jags' tight end has been known to drop a lot of passes in his career, but this season he's dropped only three.

When teams play the Jets, they have been sacrificing at least one wide receiver to Sauce Gardner. Some teams won't even throw to Gardner's side of the field because he's such a game changer. I think Christian Kirk will be the receiver who Doug Pederson decides to sacrifice. That creates even more opportunity for Engram.

The Jets secondary combined with the weather should allow Evan Engram plenty of room to work underneath. If the Jaguars can't establish the run, they'll need to pass and in a rainy game the receivers who eat are usually the tight ends.

Take Engram's over at 40.5 yards. He should see plenty of targets tonight.

Jack's Prop

Evan Engram

Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

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