By: John Fredericks, Jack Fredericks, and Nate Perry
John: After getting back-to-back college football winners on Sunday (FSU +4) and Monday (Clemson -23.5) night, it’s time to launch our 2022 NFL Picks for Week!
Last season I finished up with a +30 games ATS over .500, which blew out all the wise guy hackers in Vegas. This season will be even better! I can feel the winners coming now!
Joining me again this NFL Season will be my oldest Jack Fredericks at the Jackpot Casino in Tunica MS. and #NoPick Nate Perry from the CAL-NEV Casino in Reno, NV.
Jack: John is going to remind you often of his +30 spread from last year because the man is losing his XXXXL shirt this go around. I’m the only analyst in the building who picked the Bills to wallop the Rams on Thursday night. Gas prices are down. Liberals are polling like it’s 2007. Climate change is on a roll. Time for the Mississippi Marxist to lay some more wood on these fools. Stick with me and you’ll probably break even!
No Pick Nate: I’ve buckled under the tremendous weight of Godzilla and picked more games than I’m comfortable with and several that I have no intention of betting. Let’s hope for a hot start, otherwise, I’ll be back to picking nothing for the rest of the year.
Let’s get rolling with NFL Week 1!
Sunday, Sept. 11th
All Lines: Draft Kings 1:00 PM Sept. 9th
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Ravens at Jets +7
John: The Jets have to prove to me they are no longer a dumpster fire. Is Joe Flacco elite? No. But Lamar Jackson is, and he’s back with a vengeance – and a chip on his shoulder to boot. Jackson has to prove two things: he can stay healthy, and he can win big games. The Jets are rebuilding without a quarterback of the future to build to at least through week 4. This is not a pretty sight. Get ready for a lot of ugly games in the Meadowlands this season- at least for a month. So I’m supposed to bet Joe Flacco in the home opener? I’d rather bet on Tim Tebow to hit a curveball. Pick: Ravens -7
NoPickNate: I’m gonna start off strong this season with, you guessed it, #NoPick. This game is gross and who knows what Joe Flacco will look like out there with Zach Wilson? The Jets were a team I had a lot of optimism for over the summer, but that feeling settled into a knot in my stomach. I can’t predict what either of these teams looks like with the other unknown being how Lamar Jackson responds after ending contract negotiations prior to the season starting. I’m interested in seeing what happens in this game, but I am not interested in betting it. No Pick
Colts at Texans -7
John: It’s Andrew Luck! No, he retired! It’s Phillip Rivers! No, he retired too! It’s Carson Wentz! No, he sucks! It’s Matty Ice! Yes, that’s the ticket, another washed-up QB from the Atlanta Clown Show (ACS). The Texans are truly this NFL season’s sorriest bunch of misfits to ever hit the gridiron. It’s more fun to watch Lovie Smith’s beard grow on the sideline than to follow this train wreck masquerading as an NFL team. Take the Colts in a blowout. Pick: Colts -7
Jack: The Godzilla shamelessly roots for a bad Titans team every year. He hates the Texans. He hates the Colts. He hates Jags. He thinks the Titans are going to win every game because of their superior culture, which he just invented out of nowhere. Truth is, the Texans are going to steal some games this year, including against an abysmal Titans squad. They’ll be tricky at times, but, ultimately, they aren’t going to cover a lot of games. The most interesting quarterback in Texas right now is a high school with Manning on the back of his jersey. The Colts are my pick to win the division. They are a complete team in a weak division and should win 11 games without much problem. Look for them to hang 20 on the Texans. Pick: Colts -7
NoPickNate: This is probably my favorite bet of the week, and yes, I do hate myself for being like this. I cannot ignore the trends associated with the Texans. They are a terrible team, and that’s why we like them catching points. Makes tons of sense, right? This is a spot where every square bettor, like John, is going to say that the Colts roll blah blah and the trends just don’t back that up. Divisional underdogs historically perform very well at home in Week 1 and the Colts have been a team that typically has a sluggish start to the season. Hold your nose and take the points.Pick: Texans +7
‘Niners at Bears +7
John: Another no brainer. I’ll consider betting Chicago when Justin Fields completes two passes in a row. The Bears are pitiful – again. SF has a legit defense, and if things don’t work out for the new bay area heartthrob Trey Lance– well Jimmy Jesus is standing around on the sidelines with a clipboard and nothing else to do. I’m laying a touch on the road—but I’ve got Deebo Samuel running around like a crazy man and they don’t. Just give the ball to Deebo. Pick: SF -7
NoPickNate: You couldn’t ask for a better spot to ease Trey Lance into his new starting role in San Francisco against the Bears. The Bears went ahead and got rid of almost anything they had that would make a defense good in the offseason, so Lance should be able to do what he wants in this game. There are a lot of question marks with this SF team, and I don’t love this bet, but I think the Niners get it done in Chicago. I have a little money sprinkled on Lance to win the MVP, so I’m more interested in that than betting it, but if you must bet, take the Niners. Pick: SF -7
Eagles at Lions +4
John: The Lions were on Hard Knocks on HBO! The Eagles got A.J. Brown. Philly is the best team of the NFC. The Eagles have lofty expectations. The best way to begin living up to the hype is to beat an inferior team on the road. Same old Lions we know and love. Don’t worry, I’ll bet them on Thanksgiving Day as I’ve done for the last 46 years in a row. Pick: Birdies -4
Jack: The Lions are everyone’s darling pick this year, because they were on HBO’s Hard Knocks, they have a new coach, and they hung around enough last year to flirt with a playoff spot. If the Lions are for real, you’ll know it by Week 1, because the Eagles are no slouch. I’ve never trusted Jalen Hurts and I don’t enjoy laying points on the road (Texans excluded), so let’s go with the home crowd and hope Jared Goff doesn’t suck. Pick: Lions +4
NoPickNate: I’m pretty high on this Eagles team and I think they’ve got something special happening in Philly. This pains me a great deal as a long-suffering Cowboys fan, but that’s just how it goes sometimes. Eagles have found their identity as an offense with Jalen Hurts and adding A.J. Brown is going to elevate them even more. Despite all the Hard Knocks hype, the Lions still just aren’t that good. Eagles have what one could argue is the best roster in the NFL, if you don’t count the quarterback. Take the Eagles.
Pick: Fly Eagles Fly -4
Steelers at Bengals -6.5
John: Breaking…News-Flash…This just in: Mitch Trubisky beat somebody out at quarterback! LMAO! Oh, this Pittsburgh team is in for a long season. The Bungles are anxious to get rolling at home and prove to the world they were not just last year’s fluke. Remember, this team was one incomplete pass by Stafford away from winning a Super Bowl. Bet against Pitt early and get lots of underlays because Steelers money comes in early by the faithful. This year’s Steel Curtain is more of a shower sash. Pick: Bungles -6.5
NoPickNate: Another big favorite over a bad team and another square bet from John who is willing to lay unlimited points when a good team is playing a bad one. Get smart here and don’t do that. Not only am I taking the points here, I think Pittsburgh could spring the upset. Steelers may not have a real quarterback, but they have a real defense that could give Burrow problems and keep them in this. Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog is hilariously good, and this team will be ready. If you’re playing in a survivor pool, I implore you not to take the Bengals this week. Pick: Steelers +6.5
Brownies at Panthers – Even
John: The Browns proved yet once again they are the worst managed sports franchise since the Roman one-wheeled-chariot. What a mess on the lake. I love the Cats at home against the team with no identity. Did I hear someone say, McCaffrey?
BTW, what does Progressive Insurance do with all those Baker Mayfield commercials? Shake and Bake starts against the team that kicked him to the curb. Revenge is sweet in Charlotte. Pick: Cats – Even
Jack: I hate to agree with the Godzilla here, but you have to take the experienced quarterback at home with an ax to grind. I’m surprised the Panthers aren’t laying points. I imagine it’s because nobody knows who they are, nobody trusts Baker, McCaffery is a year older, and the Browns still have a formidable defense. I also think both offenses sputter all game, making the under at +/- 42 a nice play. Pick: Panthers Even. Under 42 total points.
NoPickNate: It feels weird typing this, but the Browns actually have a pretty solid team. The defense should be competent and their bread and butter will be running the ball which should suit Jacoby Brissett just fine. I just don’t see the Panthers getting a win here. Matt Rhule is not a good coach and as badly as Baker Mayfield may want to win, he cannot will them to victory. Pick: Browns – Even
Saints at Falcons +5.5
John: Step right up ladies and gentlemen to the big tent! The circus is back in town in downtown Atlanta! See the bearded lady and the dancing elephants on the sidelines! The Atlanta Clown Show (ACS) is back with a new master of ceremonies: Marcus Mariota! Watch as Marcus The Maestro and his happy feet dance along the hash marks as he throws interceptions in the end zone – perfectly thrown balls– right to the opposing player! It’s the greatest clown show on turf!
This team is worst than last year’s George Carlin’s laugh-in rendition.
The Saints, on the other hand, are for real. They actually play defense. Pick: Saints -5.5
NoPickNate: John’s analysis is basically exactly why I’ll lean towards taking the points here. Everyone has completely written off Atlanta but they’re here as divisional underdogs who typically show up and perform well against the spread in week 1. This is Jameis’s first game back with his newly repaired ACL and there could be some rust, and he wasn’t exactly a low-turnover player at his best. Saints could make some mistakes that keep them in this game. I won’t be betting it, but if you must, take the ACS.
Pick: Clowns +5.5
Jacksonville at Washington -2.5
John: Oh my. Trevor Lawrence has to be a little better, right? Carson Wentz has something to prove, right? The newly named team whatever it is can’t choke at home against a bottom feeder. Oh, wait, Washington is a last-place team, too! Even their number one fan for 55 years, Democrat Virginia State Senator Chap Peterson abandoned them.
They might not win many games, but I like them here at home with Riverboat Rivera. The Jags have to show me something before I bet them on the road. Wentz is no Joe Namath – but he is a veteran who can read a defense and manage a game. This has been a nightmare off-season for the Maryland franchise. But their savvy veteran head coach has kept what little talent they have focused on. He’s their best weapon.
Pick: Washington’s Whatever They Are -2.5
NoPickNate: My love for the Jags is becoming more and more documented as we get closer to kickoff. I think they win the AFC South and I’m even holding a lotto ticket for to bring the Lombardi Trophy to Jacksonville. Don’t sleep on this team. They are improving. I don’t know if I’ll bet this game at its current line because I’d really love to get +3 here, but I think Jacksonville is the right side. The public is sleeping on them because of their recent disasters, but I think they start turning things around in a hurry.
Pick: Jags +2.5
Pats at Fish -3.5
John: I’m betting on Billy B. game one. I don’t think the Fish offense is nearly what it’s cracked up to be. I think Bill Belichick is going to have some defensive wrinkles in store that help the Patriots win a low-scoring game. You know his team is coming to Miami well prepared. All of Tyreek Hill’s hype and Tua Tagovailoa’s press clippings get put to the test right off the bat. I like Mac Jones as a sophomore with some experience under his helmet. Tough game, take the points. Pick: Pats +3.5
NoPickNate: Wow, it feels really weird seeing the Dolphins favored in this game against the Pats. Belichick is ridiculous as an underdog in his career and Miami is still mostly hype that’s underperformed. I’m inclined to take the points here. Pick: Pats +3.5
Giants at Titans -5.5
John: I’m not even going to attempt to hide it: this Titans bunch is the most underrated team in the AFC. They have arguably the best defense in the entire NFL and the best running back in maybe league history. While the O-line is questionable, it came together in pre-season. A healthy Beast is not to be ignored. Call me crazy, but I believe Tannehill’s shrink sessions can lead him to have a great season.
The Giants are improving no doubt. Unfortunately, they cruise into Nashville to face an angry and hungry team, still pissed off from blowing that number one seed playing at home to the Bungles where they had 12 sacks…and lost on the final play.
The Titans got blown out at home in Week One last year, 38-13 to the Cardinals. Mike Vrabel surely hasn’t forgotten that, and he hasn’t let his players forget it, either. Do you know who else remembers it? The entire city of Nashville. It’s redemption day in Tennessee. Pick: Titans -5.5
Jack: Giants roll. John throws a hissy fit when Derrick Henry turns his ankle and books another tattoo after one too many Merlots. Pick: Giants +5.5
NoPickNate: John will be picking the Titans every week from now until the end of the season when they miss the playoffs. This team is smoke and mirrors and will be the type of mediocre team you’d expect. Henry is coming off an injury and plays behind an offensive line that is getting worse, not better. He is the offense, which means he’s a huge liability if and when he proves to be slowed down by age and injuries. I don’t love the Giants either, this is mostly just a rant about the Titans, and I won’t personally be betting it. If you must bet this, take the G-Men and the points. Pick: Giants +6
Chiefs at Cards +6
John: This is what the Cardinals put in their new $230 million contract extension with lazy-ass Kyler Murray, their supposed “leader:” mandatory four hours of weekly film study.
Seriously, he has to be legally bound to watch game films to get paid. The game film is designed to make you and your team better! What a loser! Another entitled little selfish snot-nose. What about your teammates, cat-turd? Once exposed in the media, he whined about it. What happened? The feckless Cardinals front office suites caved like a cheap suit in the rain, and removed the clause. So it’s back to Nintendo games for Kiddie-Klyler!
This organization that allows a self-absorbed twerp like Murray to dictate their entire team culture is a club destined to fail. He’s a cancerous rot.
I’ll take Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, they lead men. You can find them in the film room. Pick: Chiefs -6
NoPickNate: I don’t know what to make of this game as the line has been all over the place after opening at -3. Part of me thinks the value is probably on the Cards at this point, but this is not a team I think is worth risking hard-earned money on. Chiefs are still solid and that’s what gives me pause. No Pick
Pack at Vikes +1
John: It’s Aaron Rodgers vs. the world. Rodgers is disgruntled – again. He doesn’t like the Packers’ GM or coach. He doesn’t think much of his rook receivers – say they’re not focused and didn’t work hard in camp. Vows to freeze them out. He doesn’t like the Wisconsin governor, the mayor of Green Bay, and their city council, and says the town has gone woke. He told the NFL brass to shove the Vax up their tight butts. He wants to live in Nashville and play for Mike Vrable and Iron Lady Amy.
Minnesota is the second-best team in the division. They’ll play that way.
Rodgers gets his frustration out on a very suspect Vikings secondary. Pick: Pack -1
NoPickNate: I’m pretty high on the Vikings and I think this is a team with the potential to be really fun to watch, but they’re still playing that team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Realistically, this should be a close game and I trust A-Rod more than Cousins. I’m not terribly interested in playing this, but the Pack is probably the right side.
Pick: Packers -1
Raiders at Chargers -3.5
John: This is the toughest game on the card. Betting against the Bolts with that offense is painful to watch. They just score a lot of points. The Raiders have so many question marks. I don’t like the 3.5, as I can see this as a field goal game. But the Lightening has something to prove, and I have to understand what the Raiders are this season. Hebert is a tough draw at home for Vegas. Derek Carr is going to have another great season, but can the Raiders stop anybody? Pick: Bolts -3.5
Jack: I’m having second thoughts about my Chargers pick to win the division, as I listen to more and more of the lamestream analysis laud the Raiders for the Chubby Josh McDaniel Show. Both these teams are going to score a lot of points and I’m betting this thing comes down to a two-minute drive. I’d rather have Justin Herbert moving the ball between the sticks, than Derek Carr holding bible study in the huddle. Chargers win by 7 on a last-minute touchdown. Let’s go ahead and hammer the over while we’re at it. Pick: Chargers -3.5. Over +/-52.5.
NoPickNate: I have zero interest in betting on this game. I’m interested to see what the Raiders offense looks like with Davante Adams in the mix, but I’ll be taking a nap during this one and gearing up for the primetime game. No Pick
Bucs at Cowboys +2.5
John: I love Dallas at home to win the whole game in their season opener. Tom Brady has a lot on his mind right now. Is Dallas for real? This test will let us find out right out of the gate. The Cowboys are the sleeper team in the NFC. Dak is back – and healthy. Leg problems hampered the second half of last season. Plus they have a run game. The Bucs will likely only lose three or so games this season. This is loss one. Then they’ll rattle off 10 in a row. BTW, where is Bruce Arians? Pick: Dallas +2.5
NoPickNate: I played the under in this game as I think both offenses will be figuring some things out. The offensive line for the Cowboys keeps getting worse and now they’re navigating the passing game without Amari Cooper. As a complete homer, I think the Cowboys probably get the win here, but I’ll likely just ride the under here when it comes to actual bets.
Pick: Under 50.5
Monday Night Game
Denver at Seattle -6.5
John: Seattle is pathetic this season, Russel Wilson returns and Pete Carroll is a cheater. Need I say more? The Seahawks lack the horses to keep up with Wilson. Rebuilds are painful. This game is an ugly win for Denver. I’ll bet against them next week. Pick: Denver -6.5
Jack: Sheesh what a Monday Night game! So many storylines. Is Russell Wilson sad about the Queen’s death? Did Russell Wilson catch catholic mass before the game? Is Russell Wilson a good quarterback? Does Russell Wilson say the S word? Let’s just be different and pick Seattle to cover. Twelfth man, baby! Pick: Seattle +6.5
NoPickNate: I probably won’t be betting on this game. Usually, I’m inclined to just hold my nose and take the points, but Seattle is very, very bad and Russell Wilson will probably take quite a bit of pleasure blowing them out. The Broncos are probably the right play, but betting it would be in violation of my principles. No Pick
Tune in to the Godzilla Wins Radio Show – Saturday at 9:00 AM!
I’m going to make some money on John’s picks!
For entertainment purposes only! 🙂