Dodgers vs. Yankees: Wednesday, October 30, 2024
DODGERS VS. YANKEES: WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2024 — To the Yankees’ credit, they didn’t roll over and die following a fourth straight game with a Freddie Freeman home run. Meanwhile, the Dodgers quickly read the situation and decided to punt on Game 4. It’s an interesting move, reminiscent of the Stanley Cup Finals when Florida clearly took the night off with a 3-0 lead on Edmonton.
The Panthers nearly paid dearly for that move, as the Oilers won the next two games before Florida finished them off in Game 7. Los Angeles doesn’t plan to let this get anywhere near that far, and the Dodgers had far more reason than the Panthers to give up on Game 4.
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With the Dodgers in this position, their biggest concern was saving their bullpen arms for the rest of the series. If Los Angeles threw their best bullpen arms, the Yankees might have won anyway and left the Dodgers helpless in the next two games. That was similar to Cleveland’s situation in the 2016 World Series. The Guardians held a 3-1 lead in that World Series, but it was a foregone conclusion that the Cubs were going to win Game 5 and Game 6 because of their pitching advantage, and Cleveland was forced to bet everything on Game 7.
Los Angeles doesn’t face that dilemma. By holding a 3-0 lead, the Dodgers could afford to punt one game. In fact, they’ve already done this once before. The Dodgers opted to wave the white flag in Game 5 against the Mets in the NLCS after falling behind 8-1, gambling they could win one of two at home. It worked out, and now they’re making the same bet again.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Los Angeles DodgersÂ(108-69 SU, 91-86 ATS)Â Â |
O8.5 |
+1.5 |
 O8.5 |
 +125 |
New York Yankees(102-74 SU, 90-85 ATS) |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
 U8.5 |
 -145 |
First Pitch
When: Wednesday, October 30 at 8:08 p.m. EST
Where: Yankee Stadium, New York
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty, LAD (1-2, 6.10 ERA, 14 K’s) vs. Gerrit Cole, NYY (1-0, 2.82 ERA, 16 K’s)
Public Bets: 63% on New York
Public Money: 72% on Los Angeles
Dodgers vs. Yankees In-Season Trends
The Yankees finally unloaded on the Dodgers, dropping 11 runs on them in Game 4. That exceeded the previous three games combined, but that also came against the weakest arms in the Dodger bullpen. Los Angeles now has everyone healthy, and it’s likely to go for the kill if the Yankees give them an opening.
Cole has allowed two runs or less in three consecutive starts, making this a pretty tough ask for the Dodgers’ hitters. But once he exits the game, things could change in a big way.
Players to Watch
Was Game 5 a spot for Aaron Judge to finally get back on track? He still wasn’t himself, but even the slightest improvement can lead to a big breakthrough. The Dodgers have to keep Judge from really getting going.
Flaherty needs to give Los Angeles a top-tier start. He did enough to give the Dodgers a chance in Game 1 by pitching five scoreless innings, and he’ll have to be just as strong here.
The Prediction
The Dodgers have the bullpen now, but it’s tough to pick against Cole in this spot. Los Angeles still has to either figure out Cole or get Flaherty to give them another gem. The latter seems to be the more likely of the two possibilities, but that’s still a hard ask for the Dodgers over the course of a full game.
Los Angeles might win this off the bullpen and close the series that way, but it seems more likely that the Dodgers win this in 6.
Dan’s Picks |
 Yankees ML Â Under 8.5 Runs |